2026年市场展望报告：重置、再平衡与布局全球（英）

Reset, rebalance, go global – 2026  Editorial Dear Reader, 2025 delivered a roller-coaster ride, with plenty of major politically driven U-turns. From sudden shifts in USinterest rate policy to trade tensions that flared and cooled without warning, investors spent much of the yeartwisting and turning as the landscape felt more like quicksand than solid ground. Yet those who held theirnerve were rewarded. Now, as we enter 2026, the message is clear: staying agile while broadening the invest-ment scope are prerequisites for success. For more than a decade, US markets have been the gravitationalcentre of global investing. However, 2026 demands a broader lens – one that brings global opportunities intofocus and prioritises tactical strategies over static buy-and-hold approaches. The US economy is shifting from consumption- and job-driven growth to credit-driven momentum, poweredby rate cuts and investment in artificial intelligence (AI). In Europe, governments are doubling down on fis-cal stimulus, while China is navigating deflationary pressures, even as its strategic sectors thrive in pursuit oflong-term self-sufficiency. These divergences create a global investment opportunity set, making old play-books most likely obsolete. For bond investors, reliable income is within reach. A barbell strategy – pairing short-dated high-yield cor-porate bonds with slightly longer-duration high-quality bonds – offers a blend of carry and stability. Selec-tive additions, such as emerging market corporate bonds, can provide extra yield without excessive risk. TheUSD’s dominance is waning, opening the door for diversification – CHF for stability and select emergingmarket currencies for carry. Gold remains a cornerstone hedge, its rally underpinned by structural demand.AI is bound to continue to shape equity markets, but investors should resist tunnel vision. Defensive sectorssuch as global healthcare and cyclical stocks in Europe deserve attention. Asia – particularly China – remainspoised to outperform. 2026 will not reward complacency but, on the contrary, tactical finesse. We would like to take this opportunity to thank you for your trust and partnership. We look forward to help-ing you navigate the opportunities that lie ahead. Here is to a prosperous 2026! Yours faithfully, Christian GattikerHead of Research 3Editorial 5Macroeconomy and strategy 8Fixed income 11Equities 15Alternative investments 18Imprint Macroeconomy and strategy Reset, rebalance, go global 2026 calls for resetting and rebalancing. With divergent policies –credit-driven growth in the US, stimulus in Europe, and the quest forself-sufficiency in China – investors should consider shifting from buy-and-hold to more tactical strategies, rebalancing portfolios towardsglobal opportunities. Europe is doubling down on infrastructure/defencespending to revive domestic demand amidst a dete-rioration in export competitiveness. Pressure onenergy prices is an underappreciated positive fac-tor for the continent. In China, AI innovation andcompetitive goods, with the latter driving a surgein non-US exports, reflect positive dynamics, whiledomestic demand remains the weak link. The gov-ernment is curbing excessive industrial competitionto ensure long-term self-sufficiency and resilience. Real global growth continues at a pace of around3%, led by emerging markets (EM). The US is mov-ing from a consumption-led to an investment-drivengrowth model fuelled by interest rate cuts. A new USFederal Reserve (Fed) chair may mean a policy resettowards loose monetary policy, potentially boostingcredit activity, housing investment, and acceleratingthe AI boom. Our conviction calls for 2026 Equities Our equity view is constructive but balanced, withglobal policy divergence creating a broader oppor-tunity set. While AI remains a key performancedriver, investors can diversify with defensive health-care, Swiss equities, Europe’s cyclicals, and Asia-ledEM strength. China is on the cusp of a secular bullmarket, while Japan, India, and Singapore also offerpromise. Next Generation themes in focus are CloudComputing & AI, Cybersecurity, and Clean Energy.In terms of investment styles, high-dividend/low-volatility stocks offer further diversification andgenerate income. reversals possible, so investors should consider tacti-cal hedging strategies and adding exposure on priceweakness. Alternative investments Opportunities remain broad and attractive, withmanager selection essential. In private equity,the outlook is promising, driven by anticipatedexits among other factors. Within private credit,sponsor-backed senior secured direct lending standsout for its low expected loss ratios, with our strat-egy preference centred on Europe. Private infra-structure offers stable cash flows and growth, withunique exposure to data centres and power gen-eration. Market-neutral hedge funds can preservecapital in volatile markets through uncorrelatedstrategies, in particular quantitati