全球半导体与亚洲硬件：人工智能...或早或晚——为AI数据中心的未来注入活力

Global Semis & Asia Hardware: Artificial Intelligence... Sooner orLater - Energizing the Future of AI Data Centers This report is part of a global series in which our analysts consider what their sector will looklike by the early 2030s when AI has been fully integrated and commercialized. We believe thepower semis and components will be essential to power the AI GPUs and data centers. David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com AI accelerator power (GWs) grows 2.7x in 3 years.Based on our forecasts of AIaccelerator shipments, we anticipate the equivalence of 49.5 GW of AI accelerators to beshipped in 2028, which is a big increase from 18.6 GW equivalent of accelerator shipmentin 2025. The growth is mainly driven by the exponential rise of power per accelerator: NvidiaH100 (2022) has TDP (total design power) of up to 700W, while Rubin Ultra (2027) will beat ~3500W, a 5x increase in 5 years. As the accelerators get deployed, the rest of the supplychain, especially power and data center infrastructure, have to catch up and meet the bigcapacity requirement. Alex Wang, CFA+852 2123 2613alex.wang@bernsteinsg.com Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Carmine Milano+44 20 7762 1857carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.com AI power semi content grows 4x in 3 years. Following the strong momentum in AI-relateddemand, we now forecast 2028 AI power semi content to be US$ 7.7bn, vs. 2025 marketof $1.9bn. The AI power semi content growth (4x) is ahead of GW growth (2.7x). In 2025,power semi content is $0.10/W; in 2028, we expect this to become $0.16/W, as drivenby several upgrades to improve power efficiency: The transition to 800V architectures, themigration of DC–DC Stage 1 and Stage 2 in terms of materials (from silicon to SiC/GaN)and topology (from lateral to vertical power), and the adoption of SSTs in the future. Wesee additional upside potential for power $/W beyond this period, as these transitions arestill gaining momentum toward the end of the decade. Our AI Power Semi market model isavailable here:AI Server power Model Jack Lin+852 2123 2683jack.lin@bernsteinsg.com Juho Hwang+852 2123 2632juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com Shirley Yang, CFA+852 2123 2660shirley.yang@bernsteinsg.com Infineon followed by Renesas are the big winners in this space.We estimate thatInfineon (OP)has ~45% share in AI power semi, as Infineon offers the most completeproduct portfolio for every stage (AC-DC, IBC and POL) and every material (Si, SiC, andGaN), and its strong production capacity and quality ensures its leadership position.Renesas(OP)has ~11% share in 2025, having Nvidia as a major customer and is gaining share inAWS, and its AI revenue contribution is doubling to 8% this year.TXN (MP)has relativelylow current exposure (with overall datacenter at ~9% of revenue, ~$1.5B across both AIand non-AI applications) though it is growing quickly (up >60% YoY in 2025).ADI (MP)had ~$2B in overall datacenter business in 2025 though split across ATE, optical, andpower; power (including delivery and control, hot-swap, and high-performance protectionssolutions) represented ~30% of this (~$600M), with the overall datacenter segment growing~50% last year. Ethan Xu+852 2123 2634ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com Server component is showing similar growth trajectory. We revise up NVIDIA serverpower component TAM, and expect it to grow 60-70% YoY each year in 2026-27, andanother c.45% in 2028, reaching US$14B. Adding demands from ASICs and China market,overall AI power component TAM will be US$23B in three years.Delta Electronics (OP)isthe clear leader as the market moving to power rack architecture starting from 2H26. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Infineon: We rate Infineon Outperform with a price target of EUR 52.00 Renesas: We rate Renesas Outperform with a price target of JPY 3,300 Delta: We rate Delta Outperform with a price target of NT$1,830.00. ADI (Market-Perform, $375):ADI is executing well with both cyclical and idiosyncratic drivers, though the shares remainexpensive. TXN (Market-Perform, $205):TXN shares feel fully valued in the current environment. NVDA (Outperform, $300.00):The datacenter opportunity is enormous, and still early, with material upside still possible. AMD (MP, $265): AI expectations remain high, but server strength may help, and the new Meta deal seems supportive to FY27numbers. DETAILS Following the strong momentum in AI-related demand as Hyperscalers continue to expand Capex,we have revised our AIserver power semiconductor forecast for 2027 to US$ 5.5Bn, up from our previous estimate of US$ 5Bn. We alsointroduce a 2028 forecast of US$ 7.7Bn, representing 40% YoY growth. We expect the AI power semiconductor marketto expand fourfold between 2025 and 2028, reflecting a 60% CAGR. For our near-term projections, we have made modestupward adjustments: 2026 i