亚洲半导体与全球存储器：2026年仍将围绕人工智能展开

AsiaSemiconductors6GlobalMemory:2026isstillallaboutAl 2026 is still about Al. Sufficicnt visibility shows that 2026 dcmand for Al accelcrators(XPU is so strong that rmany supplies (e.g. CowoS, mernory logis: wafer) struggle to keepup. But unfortunately 2026 marks the 4t year of Alinvestments & investors are asking if Alis a buloible. We see 8/1 upsicle risk to earnings forecests, andl hope the.t OpenAl & Anthropicwill release positive news to drum up their IPOs which reportedly ere scheduled for 2H26.Unable to find other theses meaningful, we recommend to stay in Al but focus on quality. Mark Li+862 2123 2646rarklaberacinag oxm Edward Hat, CFAetward.hougternstsinsgcom TPU is gaining steam but NVIDIA's GPU remains the majority, in terms of CoWoSSLpply. Amkor & ASE (both not cavered) will offer sorme, but limitedly, CaWaS capacityhence should be still a key bottleneck in 2026. Brcadcom is set to supply most of TPUsthis year, & MeciaTek should complement starting 4Q26. We model nearly 4M ASICs(mostly TPU) shipped by them & recent checks suggest an upside risk, Rulbin commencingshioment in 4Q26 shoulcl allow NIVIDIA to mount a. counter-attack. Yipin Cai, CFAripizcaicbarnsteinig.com+862 2123 2668 Leading-loglc capaclty wlll be tlght, but TSMC should stil stay capex dlscipllned.2028 capacity has bcen fully booked, & N2 capacity will be tight in 2027 too. We model2026 capex at USA$47B, up 15% YeY, but capex/revenue ratio fall s revenue growsfasler. Mature nodes may see mixed demand, & high memory price squeezing end demandis an additional headwind. CoWoS/HBM expanslon should support packaging equlipment market, N2 stsrtingrevenue contribution is a milestone, but TSMC makes it predictable & hardly an investmentdebete, We modal CoWoS/HBM shipment to rise 73%/98%, YoY & tihe cepacity build-upshould present an investment apportunity should be mindful of memory IPOs from China. SMIC/Huawei just rolled out 'N+3"node but all indicstors suggest it's not as good ≤s N5 &. China still lags TSMC by 5 years, orlonger if scale &. yield are considered. Tnrest frorm Chins, however, will be still a controversywithout EUV is why we're structurally nagetive on pure-NAND suppliers. As for companies - TSMC is our Top Pick (reporf). TSMC benefits from GPU (trainingl, & its cxposure to ASIC& Edge: AI (both infererice) rritigastes the risk af Al being a bubible. With 20% EP5 CAGR, veset price target at NTS1800 on 20x forward P/E (which is 20% discount vs. 5OX). Margin headwind is temporary & we like MediaTek on its TPU projects (report). Memory price should begin to nomalize in late 2026, andl so will margin pressure. Wemodel TPU to be 7'%s/36'%s of MedieTek's totel EPS in 2026/2027 & recent checks suggestan upside risk, (more on next pege) For memory, we sernse slronger dernand and price and raise valualion multiples and largelprices for 5amsung/SK hynix/Micron to KRW140K/KRW750K/U5$330. The recordprice upcycle is the biggest driver. The pace of the price hike may be ahead of cur model& accelerate from 4C25 to 1Q26. Overall price will stsy strong nesrly all 2026, but we stllbelieve the momentum will teper off in late 2026, as compenies hikes cepex by 30-40%end more bit supply comes online. And for 2027 we axpect supply/demand to normalizeand price/margin to fall, but remain at or above healthy levels as Al demand continues toprice, and we expect Sarsung to gain share. Chinese suppliers will likely grew bil share andworth monitoring but unlikely to alter the shortage situation in 2025. UMC/Vanguard/Novatek: Squeeze from memory & broad-based inflation is a headwindto all msture-nocle segments. Among them, UMC ill lso need to absorb heevier D&A fromnew fab & we thus reiterate Underperfom We maintain Market-Perform cn Vanguard endNovetek for undemending valuation & decent dividend yield. BERNSTEINTICKERTABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATION5 TSMC: We rate TSMC Outperform with PT=NT$ 1,800.O0. Samsung Electronics: We rate Ssmsung Electronics Outperform with target price rsised from KRW 130,000 to KRw140,000,driven by higher valuation multiple from 1.5x 2-year forwercl P/B to 1.6x. valuation multiple from 1.7x 2-year forward P/B to 1.9x, Micron: We rate Micron Outperformn vith target price raised from USS270 to US$ 330.00, criven by higher valuation multiplefram 2.4x 2-year forward P/B to 2.9x. KIOXIA: We rale KIOXIA Urderperform with targel price of JPY 7,00O.O0. MediaTek: We rate MedisTek Outperform with PT=NT$ 1,640.00. Novatek: We rate Novatek Market-Perform with PT lowered to NT$ 390.00 basecl on the same 14x target P/E ancd reviseddown Q5-Q8 EPS cdlue to headwinds from cost inflation and end demend destruction. UMC: We re.te UMC Underperform with PTNT$ 32.00. Vanguard: We rale Vanguard Markel-Perforin with PT=NT$ 90.00 WE FIRST DISCUSS THEMATIC THESES, ON AI, TECHNOLOGIES, GEOPOLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS After 3 years, unfortunately Al is still the main investment thesis for 2026. Other theses hercly matter, as the intens