预计在2026年实现复苏

Recovery expected in 2026E Target PriceHK$38.70(Previous TPHK$53.89)Up/DownsideCurrent PriceHK$30.70 Giant Biogene reported revenue of RMB5,519mn (-0.4% YoY) and attributable netprofit of RMB1,915mn (-7.2% YoY)in 2025.Theresultswere broadlyin line with ourexpectations, given theexternal headwindsand intensified competition that weighedon product salesin 2H25.During the period, gross margindeclined 1.8pptsYoY to80.3%,primarily due to changes in product mix.Looking ahead to 2026E, we expectsales growth to recover gradually,mainlydriven bystronger brand promotionforKOMFYMEDandCollgene,anexpandedproductportfolio,andthecommercialization of newly approved Class III injectables.Given the intensifiedcompetitionand expected higher marketing spending,we lower our 2025-28E China Healthcare Jill WU, CFA(852) 3900 0842jillwu@cmbi.com.hk Cathy WANG(852) 3916 1729cathywang@cmbi.com.hk Miao ZHANG(852) 3761 8910zhangmiao@cmbi.com.hk 2H25 growth under pressure; 2026E recoveryto be driven by enrichedproduct portfolioand stronger brand promotion.In 2025, KOMFYMEDreportedrevenue of RMB4,470mn, down 1.6% YoY, while Collgenegrew9.2%YoYto RMB918mn.KOMFYMED's revenue dropped 22% YoYin 2H25due toshort-term external headwinds.Collgene’s growth was also affected by reducedcollaboration with top livestreamers on Tmall anda contraction in theofflinedistribution.To supporttherecovery in 2026E, the Company plans to launch Shareholding Structure Offline direct sales continued to scale up.Offlinedirect sales increased 32%YoYto RMB225mn in 2025,with its revenue contribution rising to 4.1%(+1.1ppts).Thestrong growth was primarily driven bycontinuedexpansion ofKOMFYMED offline stores(32 stores by end-2025 vs. 18 by end-2024)andbroaderpenetration into professional skincare and mass-market channels.Notably,the Company also made progress in overseas expansion,with Class IIIinjectablesapproved; commercialization to begin in 2Q26E.GiantBiogene achieved significant regulatory milestones with NMPA approvalsfortwoClass IIIinjectablesin Oct 2025 and Jan 2026.We expectthe first producttobelaunchedin2Q26E, followed by the second in 2H26E.Giant Biogene is activelypreparingfor commercialization,including market research and distributor Source: FactSet Maintain BUY.Welowerour2025-28Erevenue/ attributable net profitCAGRforecastsfrom 18%/ 17%to 11%/ 8%,to reflect intensifying competition.Wethereforelower our DCF-derived TP to HK$38.70 (WACC:10.6%,terminalgrowth:3.0%),implying19x2026E P/E.However, we expect earningsto bottomoutin 2H26E and the injectable productscoulddrive long-term earnings growth. Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible forthe content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates(as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in ortrade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as anofficer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% overnext 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with therelevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 GardenRoad, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) ImportantDisclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actu