预计2025年上半年可能出现亏损，但下半年有望恢复；预计2026年将实现稳健复苏

FY26EFY27E11,01812,23338.7797.4207.110.4913.8519.83.31.017.8(8.3)(30.0) Target PriceHK$2.42(Previous TPHK$2.61)Up/Downside16.4%Current PriceHK$2.08China MaterialsWayne FUNG, CFA(852) 3900 0826waynefung@cmbi.com.hkStock DataMkt Cap (HK$ mn)15,809.4Avg 3 mths t/o (HK$ mn)52w High/Low (HK$)2.58/1.24Total Issued Shares (mn)Source: FactSetShareholding StructureChina General Nuclear PowerCorporationChina Chengtong HoldingSource: HKExShare PerformanceAbsoluteRelative-8.8%42.5%11.2%Source: FactSet12-mth Price PerformanceSource: FactSetRelated reports:CGN Mining-New pricing formula for off-take agreement a big surprise–4 Jun2025 (link)CGN Mining–Uranium price gap likely tofurther narrow, a key catalyst for CGNMining–15 May 2025 (link)CGNMining–Further downside riskbereducedwithcontract/spot uranium price gap–23 Mar2025 (link)CGN Mining-Profit alert mainly related toone-off items; core profit remainsintact–14 Mar 2025(link)Uranium sector-China tosecure moreuranium resources in Kazakhstan–18Dec 2024 (link)原材料-天然铀受惠于全球核电未来十年的结构上升周期-2024年11月19日(链中广核矿业-低成本铀矿具优势–2024年11月19日(链接) 232.67600.756.9%Group8.0%1-mth-15.4%3-mth23.1%6-mth-14.2%shouldlarge接) 11.0934.817.212.3016.4116.92.81.217.8 1 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEUranium priceFigure1: Industry uranium spot price vs contract priceSource: Cameco, CMBIGMFigure2:UxC Uranium U308weekly spot price(US$/lb)Source: Bloomberg, CMBIGM020406080100120US$/ib PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEOperatingdata andassumptionsFigure3:Change in key assumptionsSource: Company data, CMBIGMestimatesFigure4:CGN Mining’s quarterlyuranium salesvolumeSource: Company data, CMBIGM2025ERevenue (HK$ mn)Natural uranium trading9,376Gross marginNatural uranium trading-0.2%Key expense ratiosS&D expenses0.1%Administrative expenses0.7%Expected credit losses of financial & contract assets, net0.0%(RMB mn)Net finance expense-87Share of profit of JV and associates (Mining operation)742Reported net profit487Core net profit4878496861408292811308610494124889395131128144144153124131158 161142129135163150146 134 14039543435037641146333941140935333745543246081218243335403234322301002003004005006007008009001Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q2021202220232024tUZhalpak DepositCentral Mynkuduk DepositIrkol MineSemizbay Mine Source:Company data, CMBIGM PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEValuationWe apply NPV methodology to value CGN Mining. Based on the life of the minesor relevant licenses, future cash flow (mainly from JVs dividends) is discounted tothe present value. Our target multiple ofNPV (3x) is to reflect the potentialconversion from resourcesto reservesamid the uptrend of uranium price. Our long-term assumptions include: (1) uranium price increasing 1.5% p.a. fromUS$91/lbduring 2027-31, (2) a stabilized priceat US$96thereafter, and (3)production costsrising 1% p.a. during 2027-42 to reflect inflation. PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEDisclosures& DisclaimersAnalyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respectto the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and FuturesCommission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date ofissue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report.CMBIGM RatingsBUY: Stock withpotential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGMOUTPERFORM:Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsMARKET-PERFORM:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsUNDERPERFORM:Industryexpected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsCMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimitedAddress: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobalMarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Cap