格罗方德半导体公司（GFS US）：格罗方德半导体公司（美国GFS）：2025年上半年符合预期，但下半年不确定性犹存，毛利率恢复仍显雄心

GlobalFoundries Inc(GFS US) Hold:1H25 inline but 2H25 uncertainty remainsas GMrecovery still seems ambitious United States ◆1Q25sales inlineasis 2Q25 guidance MAINTAIN HOLD ◆Still targeting 30% GM% recovery despite 2H25 uncertainties TARGET PRICE(USD)PREVIOUS TARGET(USD)38.0038.00 ◆Retain Holdrating andmaintainTPofUSD38.00 1Q25sales inline but betteroperatingmargindespite lacklustre smartphonemomentum:GlobalFoundries (GF) reported1Q25revenue of USD1.59bn,relativelyinline with guidance, as well as HSBC andVisible Alphaconsensus estimates.Among its end markets,automotive saw the biggest q-o-q decline of 25%, followedbysmartphonethat declined21%q-o-q, unlike peers that benefitted from Stimulusprogram. Further,industrial IoT also declined 8% q-o-q as communicationinfrastructure and datacentre wastheonly segment togrow2% q-o-q. 1Q25GM of23.9%wasaslight beat vs HSBC/cons estimatesandmanagementguidance of23%but OM of 13.4% was bigger beat vs HSBC/cons estimates &managementguidanceof 11.5%-11.6%. 2Q25salesand marginguidance also inline:GF guided2Q25 revenue to beup6%q-o-qattheUSD1.68bnmid-point,which was also inline withHSBCe/consensus expectations of USD1.67bnas highlighted in ourSecondary FoundryPreview Report, 2May 2025.Gross margin/operating marginguidance of 25%/14%wasalso inline with HSBC/cons estimates of 25%/14%.Further ,managementmaintained theirFY25capex outlookof USD700m. Still targeting 30% GM recoverydespite 2H25 uncertainty:GF managementacknowledged ongoing 2H25uncertainty fromcontinuedtariff issues and ongoingfoundry full year ASP pressure of mid-singledigity-o-y. However, theystillmaintainedtheir30% GM target by end of FY25. GF attributedgross marginrecoverytotheongoing ramp up of different technology andanimproving product mix.Butweremain more cautious aboutthemagnitude ofthe gross marginrecovery as we stillassumegross margin willreach 29% by the end of 2025, which leads full year 2025gross marginto be 26.2%, in line with consensus estimate of 26.6%.Further, therewas not much improvement in the utilization rates as well in 1Q25, as the companyended 4Q24 inthehigh 70’s%and it was around 80% in 1Q25.We alsodonotassume it could resume to full utilization given ongoingoversupply and secondaryfoundry sector as well as a lack of demand recovery. Frank Lee*Global Head of Tech Hardware & Semi ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedfrank.lee@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6916 Ted Lin*Analyst, Taiwan TechnologyHSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limitedted.ht.lin@hsbc.com.tw+886 2 6631 2870 RetainHoldratingandTPofUSD38.00:Weslightlyincreaseour2025e EPS by1%andour 2026eEPS estimatesremainlargely unchanged; weare 10%/8% abovetheconsensus.We maintain ourTP of USD38.00,implyingc6% upside,and isderived by applying ourtarget PB multiple of 1.7x (unchanged) to our 2025e BVPS ofUSD22.44(from BVPS of USD22.35). We believethisPB multiple is reasonable as itis still higher thanour target multiple for GF’sTaiwanese peer UMC(2303TT, CMPTWD45.40,Hold), given it is under less competitive pressure from mainland China,but concerns over lower utilization ratesandbullish GM trend as permanagementstillpersistalong with consumer weakness. We maintain our Hold Rating. * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations HSBC Global Research Podcasts Listen to our insights Find out more Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Financials & valuation:GlobalFoundries Inc Source: HSBCNote:Priced at close of 05 May 2025 Our takeaways from the1Q25analyst meeting 1Q25financial highlights ◆Revenue of USD1,585m (-13% q-o-q,+2% y-o-y) cameabove mid-pointof the guidance ofUSD1,550-1,600m.◆Wafer shipments for 300mm equivalent waferdecreased 9% q-o-qandincreased 17%y-o-y.◆ASP or average selling price per wafer was down modestlyy-o-ydue in part to the productmix shipped as well as a significanty-o-yreduction in underutilization payments.◆Gross margin came in at 23.9%, higher than guidance of 23.0% at the mid-point.◆Operating margin was13.4%.◆EPS of USD0.34cameat high-end ofguidancerangeof USD0.24-0.34. 2Q25e guidance Management expects revenue to be USD1,675mn +/-25mn, implying revenuegrowthof6% q-o-q at the mid-point. Of this, non-wafer revenue is expected to be 10%. ◆◆Adjusted grossmargin of 25% +/-100bp.◆Adjusted operating profitmargin 14% +/-180bp.◆AdjustedEPS ofUSD0.36 +/-0.05. 2025e guidance ◆Segment wise, the company has guided for smart mobile devices to see flattish growth in2025, IoT to also beflattishgiven cautious outlook for 2H25, as uncertainty around tariffmay effect demand level for consumer centric products. For auto themanagementis bullishand expects