省级“十五五”规划建议中的双碳关键词

致谢 特别感谢 iGDP 同事陈美安对本文内容的审阅与建议，感谢 Diego Montero 与徐懿情（Heather Xu）对执行摘要部分的文案编辑，感谢包林洁对简报的版面设计。 报告作者 李斯吟 朱彤昕 免责申明 本报告内容和观点仅代表作者的个人理解和观点，旨在加强相关领域的讨论交流，不代表支持方、作者所属机构、调研专家学者的立场和观点。本报告内容采用数据和信息均来自公开的信息和渠道，我们力求准确和完整，但难免偶有疏漏，敬请谅解并指正。 引用建议 李斯吟 , 朱彤昕 . 省级 “十五五” 规划建议中的双碳关键词 . 2026. 零碳录 . 北京 : 绿色创新发展研究院 . Executive Summary With China targeting carbon peaking before 2030, formal policy actions in the next five years indicate thepaths being taken toward this comprehensive green transition. Guiding policy action is the 15thFive-YearPlan. In October 2025, China released theRecommendations of the Central Committee of the CommunistParty of China for Formulating the 15thFive-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development(“national recommendations”). Subsequently, provincial governments have issued their own 15thFive-YearPlan recommendations (“provincial recommendations”), outlining local priorities for achieving carbon peakingand neutrality ("dual carbon" goals). As of January 2026, 30 provinces have released the full text of theirrecommendations. This policy brief systematically reviews the green and low-carbon development content in these provincialdocuments, aiming to offer a forward-looking picture of how provinces across China expect to shape their“dual carbon” pathways under the 15thFive-Year Plan. It covers top-level policy designs such as carbonpeaking targets and the dual control system for carbon emissions, plans for new energy system construction,and sectoral transition priorities for industry, transport, construction, and agriculture, as well as deploymentsconcerning zero-carbon parks, zero-carbon factories, and climate adaptation. In the area ofcarbon peaking and institutional development, the national government has designatedthe "timely achievement of the carbon peaking target" as a primary goal. At the local level, 28 provincialrecommendations mention this carbon peaking task. Among these, seven provinces—Liaoning, Heilongjiang,Jiangsu, Guangdong, Shaanxi, Gansu, and Ningxia—commit to "promoting the peaking of coal and oilconsumption." Furthermore, all 30 provinces commit to implementing the dual control system for total carbonemissions and intensity. Regardingenergy transition, building a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient new energy system hasbecome a shared priority for both national and local governments. Local plans widely promote multi-energysystems. Solar and wind power are central to this shift, highlighted by 28 and 26 provinces respectively.Fifteen provinces propose measures on the clean and efficient use of coal, including retrofitting coal-firedpower plants and phasing out dispersed coal use, while 18 provinces underscore the importance of increasingelectrification in final energy consumption. With respect tosectoral transitions, the state calls for "promoting green and low-carbon transition in keysectors such asindustry, urban and rural construction, transportation, and energy." For agriculture, bothnational and local documents emphasize integrating ecological sustainability into production, developinggreen agriculture, and building a diversified food supply system. Some of the specific measures proposed byprovinces include: ◆promoting energy-saving and carbon-reducing retrofits and equipment updates in key industries, ◆accelerating the promotion of new energy vehicles, ◆developing green buildings and prefabricated buildings, ◆strengthening agricultural disaster prevention, mitigation, and food loss reduction efforts. Zero-carbon parks and zero-carbon factories, recognized as strategic vehicles for China's green transition,are also advocated in the national recommendations and are widely incorporated into the plans of 28provinces. Onclimate adaptation, the national recommendations stress the need to improve systems for adapting toclimate change and to enhance capabilities for addressing climate impacts, particularly extreme weatherevents. At the local level, all 30 provincial documents mention strengthening disaster early warningmechanisms, and 14 explicitly refer to the need for "climate change adaptation." Overall, provincial recommendations demonstrate strong alignment with the national 15thFive-Year Planrecommendations regarding green and low-carbon development priorities, while also tailoring transitionfocuses to local industrial structures. The forthcoming provincial five-year plans will likely enshrine many ofthese policy directions, providing detail on the concrete and locally nuanced actions that China’s differentlocalities will take toward green transition. 2025 年 10 月，我国发布《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（下简称国家“十五五”规划建议）。为加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型，建设美丽中国，国家“十五五”规划建议提出以碳达峰碳中和为牵引，协同推进降碳、减污、扩绿、增长，积极稳妥推进和实现碳达峰、加快形成绿色生产生活方式等多项重点，推动能源、工业、城乡建设、交通运输等关键领域的低碳转型。 随着省级“十五五”规划建议陆续公开，各地对“双碳”工作的阶段性安排也逐步明晰。截至 2026 年 1 月，共有 30 个省级行政区（简称“省份”）公开发布了 “十五五”规划建议全文。iGDP 零碳录团队通过梳理发现，各省对于绿色转型重点的政策表述与国家“十五五”规划建议有较高协同性又不乏地方亮点，碳达峰、碳双控、新型能源系统、零碳园区、气候适应等也成为省级建议中频繁出现的“双碳”关键词。 本文基于已公开的 30 个省级“十五五”规划建议