理解和预测东帝汶的通货膨胀（英）2026

Understanding andForecasting Inflation inTimor-Leste Kohei Asao and Raju Huidrom WP/26/24 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2026FEB IMF Working Paper Asia and Pacific Department Understanding and Forecasting Inflation in Timor-LestePrepared byKohei AsaoandRaju Huidrom* Authorized for distribution by Alasdair ScottFebruary 2026 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of inflation in Timor-Leste—a post-conflict, low-income economy and small developing state that is fully dollarized. We find that Timorese inflation was highuntil about mid-2010 and was strongly influenced by swings in global food prices given its high share of food inthe CPI basket and heavy reliance on food imports. But inflation has been relatively low and stable in the pastdecade relative to peers—a period that also broadly coincided with moderate global food prices. We developan empirical model for Timorese inflation that distills the role of these underlying drivers, and which can bedeployed for forecasting inflation. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Asao, Kohei and Raju Huidrom, 2026. “Understanding and Forecasting Inflationin Timor-Leste,” IMF Working Paper 26/24. International Monetary Fund: Washington, DC. Understanding and ForecastingInflation in Timor-Leste Prepared byKohei Asao andRaju Huidrom Contents 1. Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................3 Historical Evolution of Timorese Inflation.......................................................................................................5Benchmarking Against Peer Country Groups................................................................................................7 Regression Coefficients...............................................................................................................................10Historical Decomposition..............................................................................................................................11Robustness Checks.....................................................................................................................................12 References.........................................................................................................................................................20 FIGURES 1. Headline Inflation in Timor-Leste......................................................................................................................62. CPI Weights: Timor-Leste vs. Peers.................................................................................................................73. Headline Inflation: Timor-Leste vs. Peers.........................................................................................................84. Headline Inflation and Import Price Volatility: Timor-Leste vs. Peers...............................................................85. Decomposition of Drivers of Headline Inflation...............................................................................................126. Out-of-Sample Fit: Phillips Curve Model.........................................................................................................14 TABLES 1. Phillips Curve Model Estimates.......................................................................................................................11 1. Introduction Timor-Leste is a Southeast Asian economy with a unique combination of structural characteristics.With a GDP-per-capita of $1,475 in 2025, itisclassified as alow-income country (LIC)and isamongthecountries eligibleforthe IMF’sconcessionalPovertyReduction and Growth Trust Fund (PRGT).Timor-Leste is alsocharacterized as a small developing state (SDS)—with a population of1.4 million—as well asa fragile conflict-affected state (FCS).1The economyrelies heavily on imports, particularly food, includingthe country's staplerice.Until recently,Timor-Lestewasan oilexporterwith the proceedsplaced intoasovereignPetroleumFund(PF), resulting in anet foreign assetpositionthat isamong the highest in the world as a share ofthedomesticeconomyand anoutlier among countries at similar levels of per-capita income(Carrière-Swallowand Huidrom2025).2 The Timorese economyisheavily dependent on the publicsector, with public spending averagingaround80percent of non-oil GDPin the lastdecade.Thisgenerates