2023私人市场视野预测未来五年私人资本规模的增长（英）2026

Forecasting the growth of private capital AUM overthe next five years Contents Overview3 Institutional Research Group Nathan Schwartz, CFASenior QuantitativeResearch Analystnathan.schwartz@pitchbook.com Global private markets in 20305 Evergreens pull ahead7 Jacobie FullertonQuantitative Research Analystjacobie.fullerton@pitchbook.com Forecasts by fund strategy9 Private equity9 pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.comPublished on May 1, 2026 Venture capital11 Private debt Real estate15 Real assets17 Appendix: Methodology 20 References23 Overview For nearly four decades, private markets operated with apowerful and largely invisible tailwind: the secular decline ininterest rates. From the early 1980s, when the federal fundsrate peaked near 20%, through the long post-global-financialcrisis stretch when policy rates anchored close to zero formuch of the 2010s, nearly every corner of the private marketsbenefited from an environment in which borrowed capitalwas cheap, asset values rose as discount rates fell, andmultiples expanded. That accommodative backdrop fueled anextraordinary rise in private market AUM. The backdrop of the past two years has thrown severaloff-speed pitches. US tariff expansion, lingering inflationpressures, and renewed geopolitical tension in the Middle Easthave elevated uncertainty and may be weighing on investorrisk appetite. While private markets have proven relativelyresilient, these headwinds may encourage investors to pausecommitments and reassess regional exposures, contributingto slower capital formation globally than the previousdecade. Encouragingly, recent deal activity and fundraisingacross select strategies are pointing to a potential revival inrisk appetite. Since 2022, a reset has been underway. The rapid shift froma decade of near-zero interest rates to a persistently higher-rate environment has reshaped the economics of privatecapital investing. Deals that once penciled out no longerclear. Transaction volume slowed, distributions fell to historiclows, and fundraising came under pressure. Growth in privatemarket AUM has continued, but at a slower pace. In this newenvironment, wins are hard fought, and operational valuecreation rather than financial engineering will separate topmanagers from the rest. Looking ahead, we forecast that global private market AUMmanaged by GPs will reach roughly $26.7 trillion by the end of2030, up from about $20 trillion today. This trajectory implies a5.7% annualized growth rate, which is slower than the historicalgrowth rate and consistent with our view of the maturation ofprivate markets. Even as returns moderate and competitionintensifies, we expect private capital strategies to remaincentral in both institutional and individual portfolios. sharply lower and highly concentrated in a handful of AI-linkedfranchises. Real estate is still marked by weak fundraisingand lagging performance. Real assets are enjoying recordcommitments tied to digitalization, decarbonization, anddeglobalization, and secondaries have had a breakout yearwith record capital raised and transaction volume surpassing$200 billion as the strategy cements its role as a mainstreamliquidity and portfolio management tool. A key driver of our 2026 outlook is the continued expansionof evergreen vehicles that promise access to private marketswith a veneer of enhanced liquidity. In the US, evergreenfunds aimed at private wealth investorsreached roughly $534billion in 2025, doubling over the last three years. Headlinesabout elevated redemption requests, particularly in credit-focused evergreen funds, have heightened concerns about thedurability of these products. These concerns largely reflectthe reality that liquidity in vehicles holding illiquid assets willbe actively managed and, at times, constrained. We still see astrong set of positives behind these semiliquid fund structures,which offer continuous fundraising, periodic liquidity windows,and streamlined administration relative to traditional closed-end funds. Over the next few years, we expect the positivetrajectory of evergreen AUM growth to continue as managerslaunch new products, deepen distribution partnerships, andcapitalize on recent regulatory changes surrounding the wealthand defined contribution (DC) channels. Any long-range forecast comes with uncertainty. We accountfor this by using probabilistic models to forecast a distributionof outcomes. The base case represents the median outcomeacross a wide range of simulation results, while the bottom andtop quartiles provide context for potential downside and upsidescenarios, respectively. These projections have been developedthrough collaboration across our research team, with inputscalibrated to reflect the evolving market environment, capitalflow data, and macroeconomic assumptions. See the Appendixfor details about our forecasting methodology. Insurers have emerged as a pivotal client base for publiclylisted alternative managers, particularly in priv