电力2026到2030年的分析和预测（英）

Analysis and forecast to 2030 INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCY The IEA examines the fullspectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand sidemanagement and muchmore. Through its work,the IEA advocatespolicies that will enhancethe reliability,affordability andsustainability of energyin its32Member countries,13Association countriesand beyond. IEAAssociationcountries: IEAMembercountries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine This publication and any mapincluded herein are withoutprejudice to the status of orsovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation ofinternational frontiers andboundaries and to the nameof any territory, city or area. The EuropeanCommission alsoparticipates in thework of the IEA Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org Abstract Global power demand growth continues to rise rapidly as the Age of Electricitygatherspace,supported by the increasing electrification of industry,transportation, and the buildings sectors. Growing consumption is also comingfrom some of the most dynamic segments of global economies, such as artificialintelligence (AI), data centres, and evolving technological innovations. Against this backdrop,Electricity 2026– the IEA’s annual report on globalelectricity systems and markets – provides in-depth analysis of the recent trendsand policy developments underpinning this new era. It includes forecasts forelectricitydemand,supply and carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions for selectcountries, by region and worldwide. This year the forecast period has beenexpanded to five years, 2026-2030, compared with the previous three-yearoutlook. As electricity use grows, power systems will need greater flexibility to securely andcost-effectively integrate an increasingly diverse mix of electricity generationsources while accommodating evolving demand patterns and technologies. Thisyear’s report has a special focus on these challenges with chapters on grids andflexibility. It also includes detailed updates on demand response and utility-scalebattery developments. Acknowledgements, contributorsand credits This study was prepared by the Electricity Systems and Markets (ESM) Divisionof the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Directorate of Energy Markets andSecurity (EMS). The study was designed and directed by Eren Çam, EnergyAnalyst for Electricity, who also co-ordinated the production of the report. The lead authors of the report were Eren Çam, Marc Casanovas, John Moloney,and Matthew Davis. Other IEA colleagues provided important contributions,including Javier Jorquera Copier, Chaerin Kim and Jacques Warichet. The work greatly benefitted from strategic guidance from Keisuke Sadamori,Director of EMS and Maria Sicilia, Head of ESM. Valuable comments andguidance were provided by other senior management within the IEA, in particular,Laura Cozzi and Tim Gould. In addition, expert guidance and valuable input fromCarlos Fernández Álvarez, Senior Energy Analyst, is greatly appreciated. Thework benefitted from the guidance and input from Dennis Hesseling, Head of Gasand Coal Markets Division. The report also benefited from analysis and data from Nadim Abillama, JennyBirkeland, Esra Bozkır Broekman, Gyuri Cho, Johanna Dahl, Celeste Del Vecchio,Carole Etienne, Adrian Gao, Grace Henry, Lydia Jayakumar, Javier Jorquera,Natalie Kauf, Yu Kawasaki, Jinil Kim, Ja Hyun Kim, Claire Lesieur, Augustin Lorne,Akos Losz, Rita Madeira, Edward McDonald, Gergely Molnar, Pedro Nino deCarvalho,Ranya Oualid,Camille Paillard,Isaac Portugal,Frederick Ritter,StephanTerhorst,Ottavia Valentini,Matthew Van der Beeuren,PeerapatVithayasrichareon, and Hasti Wiandita. IEAcolleagues across the agency provided valuable input,comments andfeedback, in particular, Heymi Bahar, Stéphanie Bouckaert, Federico Callioni, DanDorner, Michael Drtil, Araceli Fernandez Pales, Paolo Frankl, Pablo Hevia-Koch,Martin Küppers, Rebecca McKimm, Tetsuya Mizuno, Apostolos Petropoulos,Zubin Postwalla, Brendan Reidenbach, Max Schönfisch, Anthony Vautrin andBrent Wanner. Theauthors would also like to thank Diane Munro for skilfully editing themanuscript and the IEA Communication and Digital Office, in particular, JethroMullen, Oliver Joy, Isabelle Nonain-Semelin and Astrid Dumond. We also thankEinar Einarsson for his assistance in setting up the peer review. Many experts from outside of the IEA reviewed the report and provided valuablecomments.They include:Michel Augonnet(CIGRE),Edith Bayer(OregonDepartment of Energy), Soukaina Boudoudouh (IRESEN), Salma Boumhaouad(IRESEN), Marco Baroni (Baroni E