宜居的太平洋城市和城镇。聚焦：绘制风险图，建立韧性——太平洋城市地区的风险敞口分析（英）2026

Mapping Risk,Building Resilience -Exposure Analysis ofPacific Urban Areas Livable Pacific Cities and Towns:Urbanization Strategies forResilience, Sustainability,and Inclusion © 2026 International Bank for Reconstructionand Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank and the Global Facilityfor Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) with external contributions.The sole responsibility of this publication lies with the authors. Thefindings, analysis and conclusions expressed in this document do notnecessarily reflect the views of any individual partner organization of TheWorld Bank (including the European Union), its Board of Directors, or thegovernments they represent, and therefore they are not responsible forany use that may be made of the information contained therein. Although the World Bank and GFDRR make reasonable efforts to ensureall the information presented in this document is correct, its accuracy andintegrity cannot be guaranteed. Use of any data or information from thisdocument is at the user’s own risk and under no circumstances shall theWorld Bank, GFDRR or any of its partners be liable for any loss, damage,liability or expense incurred or suffered which is claimed to result fromreliance on the data contained in this document. The boundaries, colors,denomination, and other information shown in any map in this work donot imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning thelegal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of suchboundaries. Rights and Permissions—The material in this work is subject to copyright.Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge,this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for non-commercialpurposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: World Bank. 2026. LivablePacific Cities and Towns. Spotlight: Mapping Risk, Building Resilience -Exposure Analysis of Pacific Urban Areas. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, shouldbe addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 HStreet NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; email: pubrights@worldbank.org Table of Contents Acronyms and AbbreviationsList of FiguresList of TablesAcknowledgementsExecutive Summaryivivvvi1 1.Introduction4 1.1Regionalcontext:Pacificcitiesandtowns4 2.Methodology 7 2.1Exposure Assessment7 2.2.1Seismic Source Characterization2.2.2Ground Motion Characterization2.2.3Hazard Calculation and Outputs2.2.4Scope and Key Findings10101012 2.3Tropical Cyclone Hazard Methodology12 2.3.1Modeling Framework and Historical Data2.3.2Windfield and Topographic Modeling2.3.3Stochastic Event Generation and Calibration2.3.4Hazard Assessment Outputs12131314 2.4Flood Hazard Methodology15 2.4.1Fluvial/Pluvial Flood Analysis2.4.2Coastal Flood Analysis1617 3.Exposure at Risk Results19 3.1Earthquake EaR3.2Tropical Cyclone EaR3.3Flood EaR3.3.1Fluvial/Pluvial Flood EaR3.3.2Coastal Flood EaR1922242428 4.Conclusions and Recommendations31 4.1Options for Consideration33 Annex 1 – Ground Motion Characterization35 Acronyms and Abbreviations List of Figures List of Tables Acknowledgments This report was prepared by a team led byRashminGunasekera and James Daniell,comprising Andreas Schaefer, Bastian VanDen Bout, Johannes Brand, Roberth Romero,Andreas Lang, Harriette Stone, Annika Maier,and Kerri Cox of the World Bank’s DisasterResilience Analytics and Solutions (D-RAS)team, with inputs from Jian Vun, JessicaSchmidt, and Andres Maglione. The workwasconducted under the guidance ofStephen N. Ndegwa as Division Director forPapua New Guinea and the Pacific IslandsCountries, and Björn Philipp and Ming Zhangas the World Bank’s East Asia and PacificUrban Disaster Risk Management and LandPractice Managers, with strategic advice andinputs from Andre Bald and Eric Dickson. The team was fortunate to receive excellentadvice and guidance from the following peerreviewersduring the report preparationprocess: Ana Campos Garcia, Jana El-Horr,Linus Pott, and Paula Restrepo Cadavid. Devan Kreisberg was the editor and NurizaSaputra was responsible for the design andtypesetting of the report. This report was made possible with financialsupport from the Africa Caribbean Pacific–European Union Disaster Risk ManagementProgram, managed by the Global Facility forDisaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). ExecutiveSummary Cities and towns in the Pacific region face significantrisks from natural hazards. These risks are projectedto increase with climate change and increasingurbanization, yet they are not well understood.As a complementary technical report toLivablePacific Cities and Towns: Urbanization Strategiesfor Resilience, Sustainability, and Inclusion, thisSpotlight details the results from risk modelingand scientific analyses designed