宜居的太平洋城市和城镇。聚焦：绘制风险图，建立韧性——太平洋城市地区的风险敞口分析

Mapping Risk,Building Resilience -Exposure Analysis of Livable Pacific Cities and Towns:Urbanization Strategies forResilience, Sustainability, © 2026 International Bank for Reconstructionand Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank and the Global Facilityfor Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) with external contributions.The sole responsibility of this publication lies with the authors. Thefindings, analysis and conclusions expressed in this document do not Although the World Bank and GFDRR make reasonable efforts to ensureall the information presented in this document is correct, its accuracy andintegrity cannot be guaranteed. Use of any data or information from thisdocument is at the user’s own risk and under no circumstances shall theWorld Bank, GFDRR or any of its partners be liable for any loss, damage, Rights and Permissions—The material in this work is subject to copyright.Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: World Bank. 2026. LivablePacific Cities and Towns. Spotlight: Mapping Risk, Building Resilience -Exposure Analysis of Pacific Urban Areas. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, shouldbe addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Table of Contents Acronyms and AbbreviationsList of FiguresList of TablesAcknowledgements 1.Introduction 2.Methodology 2.1Exposure Assessment 2.2.1Seismic Source Characterization2.2.2Ground Motion Characterization2.2.3Hazard Calculation and Outputs 2.3Tropical Cyclone Hazard Methodology 2.3.1Modeling Framework and Historical Data2.3.2Windfield and Topographic Modeling2.3.3Stochastic Event Generation and Calibration 2.4Flood Hazard Methodology2.4.1Fluvial/Pluvial Flood Analysis2.4.2Coastal Flood Analysis 3.Exposure at Risk Results 3.1Earthquake EaR3.2Tropical Cyclone EaR 3.3Flood EaR3.3.1Fluvial/Pluvial Flood EaR3.3.2Coastal Flood EaR242428 4.Conclusions and Recommendations31 Acronyms and Abbreviations List of Figures List of Tables Acknowledgments This report was prepared by a team led byRashminGunasekera and James Daniell,comprising Andreas Schaefer, Bastian VanDen Bout, Johannes Brand, Roberth Romero,Andreas Lang, Harriette Stone, Annika Maier,and Kerri Cox of the World Bank’s DisasterResilience Analytics and Solutions (D-RAS)team, with inputs from Jian Vun, JessicaSchmidt, and Andres Maglione. The work The team was fortunate to receive excellentadvice and guidance from the following peerreviewersduring the report preparation Devan Kreisberg was the editor and NurizaSaputra was responsible for the design and This report was made possible with financialsupport from the Africa Caribbean Pacific–European Union Disaster Risk Management Spotlight: Mapping Risk, Building Resilience - Exposure Analysis of Pacific Urban Areas1Spotlight – Mapping Risk, Building Resilience: Exposure Analysis of Pacific Urban Areas ExecutiveSummary Cities and towns in the Pacific region face significantrisks from natural hazards. These risks are projectedto increase with climate change and increasingurbanization, yet they are not well understood.As a complementary technical report toLivablePacific Cities and Towns: Urbanization Strategiesfor Resilience, Sustainability, and Inclusion, thisSpotlight details the results from risk modelingand scientific analyses designed by World Bank of the building stock, expressed in terms of theireconomic value (in U.S. dollars); the population;and the built-up surface (in square meters). Inorder to calculate the EaR, a location’s exposurelayers are overlaid with hazard maps for differenttypes of hazards and return periods.2By focusingon hazard extents rather than detailed damage Thefollowing analysis is based on stochastichazard event simulations for the abovementionedhazards,incorporating up to 10,000 years ofevent simulations. Empirical data were utilized EaRanalysis reveals who and what is at riskfromdifferent natural hazards.This reportpresents EaR calculations – incorporating climate Key results EaR results for 38 urban areas in 10 PICsare ranked by hazard, with lower rankingsrepresenting higher EaR, i.e., an urban •South Tarawa (Kiribati), Majuro (Marshall Islands),andFunafuti (Tuvalu)in the Atoll nations rank first,second, and third (respectively) for coastal flooding,butFunafuti is also highly exposed to tropicalcyclones (ninth), while South Tarawa and Majuro •Port Vila and Luganville(Vanuatu),Honiara (Solomon Islands), and Nadiand Suva (Fiji)consistently rank highly Between 2024 and 2050, the exposure of populationsand assets across the 38 urban areas is expected toincrease by 130 percent for earthquakes and 74 percentfor cyclone hazards. For floods, population exposure will •Honiara ranks exceptionally high inflood (first to sixth) and earthquake(eighth) exposure, but comparat