天然气2025到2030年的分析和预测（英）2025

Analysis and forecasts to 2030 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The IEA examines the full spectrum of energyissues including oil, gas and coal supply anddemand, renewable energy technologies,electricity markets, energy efficiency, access toenergy, demand side management and muchmore. Through its work, the IEA advocatespolicies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 32Member countries,13Association countries andbeyond. SpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States IEAMember countries:Australia AustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak Republic TheEuropean Commissionalso participates in the workof the IEA This publication and any map included herein arewithout prejudice to the status of or sovereigntyover any territory, to the delimitation ofinternational frontiers and boundaries and to thename of any territory, city or area. IEAAssociation countries: ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine Revised version,October2025Information notice found at:www.iea.org/corrections Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org Abstract Global gas markets are set to undergo major changes by the end ofthe decade, with the coming wave of liquefied natural gas (LNG)production capacity set to profoundly transform market dynamics.The unprecedented scaling up of LNG supply is expected to improvegas supply security and make natural gas more affordable – includingin emerging, price-sensitive import markets. However, to account forthese shifts, LNG producers and suppliers may need to adapt theirmedium-term strategies. TheGas 2025medium-term report from the International EnergyAgency(IEA)examines this coming transformation and itsconsequences,offering a comprehensive overview of potentialsupply, demand and trade trends in global natural gas markets forthe coming years. It provides a thorough review of recent marketdevelopments ahead of the 2025-26 winter season in the NorthernHemisphere – and includes forecasts for how supply and demandcould evolve to 2030. The report also includes the IEA’s detailed annual assessment of gassupply security, including the implications of LNG contracting trends,and features a special spotlight on the potential to deploy carboncapturetechnologies along LNG value chains to reduce theemissions intensity of supply. Additionally, as part of the IEA’s Low-Emission Gases Work Programme, it includes a section on themedium-term outlook for biomethane, low-emissions hydrogen ande-methane. Table of contents Executive summary........................................................................................5Gas market update.......................................................................................15Medium-term market outlook .......................................................................37LNG contracting and flexibility update .........................................................81CCUS applications along LNG value chains..............................................100Medium-term outlook for low-emissions gases..........................................107Annex .........................................................................................................117 Executive summary The coming LNG wave is set to profoundly transform the global gas market Following the supply shock of 2022/23, natural gas marketsmoved towards a gradual rebalancing in 2024 and 2025. Duringthis period, supply fundamentals remained tight and prices stayedwellabove their historic levels.This limited demand growth,especially in price-sensitive Asian markets. weaker macroeconomic environment, together with a slower build-out of natural gas infrastructure and contractual rigidities, might limitthe scope of the price-adjusted demand response. Aprolonged period of lower LNG prices could reduce theincentive for project developers to invest in LNG liquefactionprojectsand in upstream and midstream infrastructure. This, in turn,could lead to a potential tightening of global gas markets post-2030,especially if demand growth follows a higher trajectory. Around 300 billion cubic metres per year of new liquefied naturalgas (LNG) export capacity is expected to be added worldwide by2030, primarily supported by liquefaction capacity expansions in theUnited States and Qatar. This wave of new LNG production capacityis set to profoundly transform global gas market dynamics. Thescaling up of LNG supply will play a key role in enhancing supplysecurity and improving the affordability of natural gas – including inprice-sensitive emerging import markets. Global gas demand growth slowed in 2025 amidmacroeconomic uncertainty and tight supplyfundamentals Followinga relatively strong increase in 2024,natural gasdemand growth slowed signifi