东帝汶私营部门的发展和政策行动：商业摸底调查的经验教训（英）

LESSONS FROM A BUSINESS MAPPING SURVEY Shigehiro Shinozaki ADB ECONOMICSWORKING PAPER SERIES ADB Economics Working Paper Series Private Sector Development and Policy Actionsin Timor-Leste: Lessons from a Business Mapping Survey Shigehiro ShinozakiNo. 837 | February 2026 Shigehiro Shinozaki (sshinozaki@adb.org)is a senior economist at the Economic Researchand Development Impact Department,Asian Development Bank. TheADB Economics Working Paper Seriespresents research in progress to elicit commentsand encourage debate on development issuesin Asia and the Pacific. The views expressedare those of the authors and do not necessarilyreflect the views and policies of ADB orits Board of Governors or the governmentsthey represent. Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2026 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2026. ISSN 2313-6537 (print), 2313-6545 (PDF)Publication Stock No. WPS260024-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/WPS260024-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policiesof the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for anyconsequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that theyare endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, ADB does notintend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundby the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisionsand terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedto another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishto obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to usethe ADB logo. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. ABSTRACT This paper empirically investigates what drives the growth of private businesses in Timor-Lesteand the policy actions needed to facilitate growth amid global uncertainty, especially for micro,small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). It uses the linear probability model (LPM) toidentify the MSME growth structure and the Oaxaca decomposition to reveal detailed growthfactors by firm type in determining which policy areas need to be strengthened. Estimation resultsshow that four types of MSMEs—those formalized, digitalized, internationalized, and women-led—exhibit different business characteristics and performance results compared with control groups.Accordingly, policy support areas differ by firm type, with a focused approach critical in designingand delivering policy assistance to MSMEs in Timor-Leste. The study suggests policy implicationsto consider when designing an evidence-based MSME policy framework that can maximizethe benefits from the country’s recent accession to Association of Southeast Asian Nationsmembership. Keywords:digitalization, heterogeneity, Oaxaca decomposition, private sector development,SME development, SME policy, Timor-Leste JEL codes:D22, G20, L20, L50 1.INTRODUCTION Timor-Leste gained independence in May 2002. It is a small island country with a population of1.3 million. It is highly reliant on petroleum for revenue, making economic diversification crucialfor creating a resilient, sustainable economy amid current global uncertainty. Diversificationrequires strong private sector growth, increasingly led by the development of growth-orientedmicro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). Thus, strengthening dynamics of MSMEshas become a national policy priority, given their potential yet status of untapped resources tobuild a framework for sustaining economic growth and development. Despite the rapidly evolving global outlook, Timor-Leste’s economy has grown steadily since thecoronavirus disease pandemic with strong domestic demand and improved fiscal policy. Grossdomestic product (GDP) grew by 4.1% in 2024 with growt