东帝汶加入东盟：能否缩小发展差距？（英）

KEY POINTS Timor-Leste Joins ASEAN:Can It Close the Development Gap? •With domestic policyreforms and support frompartners, Timor-Lestecan catch up with ASEANpeers.Its current level ofdevelopment is ahead ofCambodia and the Lao PDRand comparable to Viet Nam,at the time of their ASEANaccession. James VillafuerteRegional Lead Economistfor Southeast AsiaAsian Development Bank (ADB) Stefania DinaCountry DirectorADB Timor-Leste Resident Mission Bold SandagdorjCountry EconomistADB Timor-Leste Resident Mission Jose Ramon AlbertConsultantADB •Important gains in genderequality, electricity access,and literacy rates provide astrong foundation to reachconvergence.The focus isto strengthen child nutrition;invest more in health,education, and skills; expanddigital connectivity; andimprove financial access. CONTEXT: DEVELOPMENT GAPS ARE COMMONAT ACCESSION Cambodia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), Myanmar, and Viet Namjoined the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) from 1995 to 1999 withdevelopment gaps. Such accession gaps are normal. These gaps narrowed over the past2 decades through interventions and reforms, and sustained commitment. The Initiativefor ASEAN Integration (IAI) played a key role in narrowing these gaps. Timor-Lesteenters ASEAN at a time when the IAI and ASEAN Framework for Equitable EconomicDevelopment (AFEED) monitoring are in place. •Strengthening governanceand institutional capacitywill be key to unlocking thefull benefits of integration.By enhancing public servicesthrough e-government,digital transformation,strengthened policies andregulations, and capacityskills, Timor-Leste can buildstronger confidence. This brief maps Timor-Leste’s position and outlines priority actions. It uses threeASEAN country groupings:High-income(HI) member states comprise BruneiDarussalam, Malaysia, and Singapore;rapidly developing(RD) economies includeIndonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam; andlow-income(LI) memberstates comprise Cambodia, the Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Timor-Leste. •The regional architecture tosupport Timor-Leste is inplace.Mechanisms to assistnewer members, monitordevelopment progress, andcoordinate country-levelintegration planning areavailable. Practical capacity-building, technical assistance,and knowledge support fromASEAN and partners shouldbe continued. ISBN 978-92-9277-742-5 (print)ISBN 978-92-9277-743-2 (PDF)ISSN 2071-7202 (print)ISSN 2218-2675 (PDF)Publication Stock No. BRF260116-2DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/BRF260116-2 HUMAN DEVELOPMENT SETBACKSREQUIRE ASEAN SUPPORT TO BUILDRESILIENCE Two decades of convergence prove ASEAN integration works, butrecent shocks expose fragility. To address human developmentchallenges, stronger support is needed to strengthen regionalresilience. From 2000 to 2019, gross domestic product (GDP) per capitagaps between ASEAN economies in the HI and LI groupingsnarrowed substantially from 26.4 to 11.1 times. Maternal mortalityin LI economies fell by more than 70%, and financial inclusionshowed the fastest convergence gains, reflecting trade openness,connectivity investments, and targeted support. From 2020 to 2023, HI and RD economies rebounded from thecoronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, while LI economiesexperienced sluggish and sometimes reversed recovery. Although the Human Development Index (HDI) ratio between HIand LI ASEAN economies declined from 2000 to 2019, the ratiowidened to 1.41 by 2023 (Figure 1), GDP per capita convergencestalled (Figure 2), and extreme poverty among LI economies rosefrom 9.6% in 2019 to 15.4% by 2025 (Figure 3). Timor-Leste’sGDP per capita contracted in 2020 but is recovering after thepandemic. While still below the ASEAN average, Timor-Leste’spost-pandemic rebuilding aligns with the experience ofLI economies. Note: Poverty figures are the proportion of population below the internationalpoverty line ($3 per day in 2021 purchasing power parity prices), World Bank’sPoverty and Inequality Platform (PIP) modeled estimates extrapolated frompoverty surveys using national accounts growth (“lined-up” methodology).Poverty monitoring frequency varies: Indonesia annually, the Philippinesevery 2–3 years, and the Lao People’s Democratic Republic every 5–6 years.Timor-Leste’s latest estimate was in 2014. Source: World Bank. PIP.https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.DDAY(accessed January 2026). TIMOR-LESTE: A FAMILIAR STARTINGPOINT WITH ACTIONABLE STRUCTURALCHALLENGES ENABLING CONDITIONS: DIGITAL ACCESS,GOVERNANCE, AND SOCIAL PROTECTION Several AFEED dimensions highlight progress in electricity, gender,and disaster resilience, but also show room for improvement indigital access, governance capacity, and social protection. Timor-Leste enters ASEAN from a starting point that is morefavorable than commonly perceived, and the structural issues arewell understood and actionable. Gender Equality: A Foundation to Build OnWomen hold 35.4% of parliamentary seats—among ASEAN’s Timor-Leste’s