2025年第三季度量化展望报告

QUANT RESEARCHA Fork in the Road A QUANTITATIVE PERSPECTIVE ON Introduction PitchBook Data, Inc. Nizar TarhuniExecutive Vice President of Research & Market IntelligenceDaniel Cook, CFAGlobal Head of Quantitative Research & Market IntelligenceZane Carmean, CFA, CAIADirector of Quantitative Research A dichotomy is developing across nearly all aspects of the VC landscape. Unicorns arelaunching IPOs at the fastest rate since 2021, but exits remain stunted. Large funds continue todominate new commitments, yet fundraising is tracking for an eight-year low. For every slice Research The most glaring example is the size of investment and frenzy of activity in AI, whichcontinues to see investment counts and values rise each year. But the divergence is not justbetween AI and the rest of the market; there are dividing lines within the sector itself. The Susan HuQuantitative Research Analystsusan.hu@pitchbook.com Taylor Criswell, CFASenior Quantitative Research Analysttaylor.criswell@pitchbook.com Competing tensions are leading to inaction among economists and investors. The FederalReserve (the Fed) held off on rate cuts over the summer, balancing early deterioration in thejobs market with resilient economic activity. Just as inflation is cooling in goods, electricityand natural gas are preventing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from reaching the Fed’s 2% Miles OstroffAssociate Quantitative Research Analystmiles.ostroff@pitchbook.com A few high-flying IPOs show that there is reason for excitement in the market, but the dealenvironment remains stagnant as companies age. Companies are staying private longer, bothbecause a small number can continue to raise private capital and because many remain Kyle Stanford, CAIADirector of Research, US Venturekyle.stanford@pitchbook.com Contact Looking ahead, venture’s ability to sustain historical multiple on invested capital (MOIC)profiles within AI will be challenged by the flood of capital chasing deals in the segment.Despite broader stagnation, there seems to be an endless supply of capital for the hottest AI pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com Key takeaways •The PitchBook VC Dealmaking Indicator remains investor friendly, though it istrending closer to neutral for early-stage startups. AI stands out as the hottest •Inflation continues to cool, albeit at a slower pace, as CPI has yet to reach the Fed’s2% target. The prices of natural gas and electricity have jumped over the past 12 •Compared with recent sectoral cycles, the scale of investment in AI isunprecedented (page 22). This flurry of investment has largely been concentrated in a small handful of marquee deals that dwarf all other rounds. The 10 largestdeals represent 41.2% of all VC activity YTD (page 25). •Measures of consumer sentiment have trended lower in 2025 (page 6), reflectinguncertainty amid changing tariffs and a cooling job market (page 8). Employersare likely shifting to a “low hire, low fire” mindset to keep overhead low but avoid •Exit counts and values are recovering from their 2024 slump with trailing six-month totals surpassing short-term trends but remaining suppressed comparedwith long-term trends (page 11). •Within AI, horizontal platforms dominate deal value, far outpacing verticalapplications and autonomous machines even as deal counts in those segmentsaccelerate (page 23). •The weak IPO market and sluggish M&A activity are driving a difficult liquiditylandscape for investors. In 2025, distribution yields have ticked down and remainwell below historical norms, with late-2010s vintages continuing to show lowerdistributions as a percentage of NAV compared with earlier funds. The US VCdirect secondary market, estimated at $61.1 billion in ourQ2 2025 US VC •AI companies command a significant late-stage premium, with their median SeriesD+ pre-money valuation roughly three times higher than that of non-AI peers •High entry prices reshape venture outcomes: Early-stage deals carry higher riskbut also greater upside, while in Series D+ deals, outcomes converge toward the •Capital is increasingly concentrated among a handful of large platforms. The top 10funds have accounted for 42.9% of commitments YTD, while emerging managers Red light, green light RED LIGHT, GREEN LIGHT GDP continues to exceed its post-global-financial-crisis (GFC) trend, though forecasts see the potential for a reversion tothe mean. Uncertainty regarding tariffs and consumer demand are driving expectations… RED LIGHT, GREEN LIGHT …as illustrated by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and OECD Business Confidence Index remainingwell below their long-term medians. RED LIGHT, GREEN LIGHT CPI continues to cool at a modest pace but remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Rising natural gas and electricity costs,driven partly by AI datacenter demand, are the core drivers of sustained inflation. RED LIGHT, GREEN LIGHT Job growth has slipped below pre-pandemic averages, while unemployment continues to