2026年投资展望：角色反转

2026lnvestmentOutlook Marketing communication.ForProfessional Clientsonlyand should notbedistributed toorreliedupon by Retail Clients. This document provides a high level overview of the recent economicenvironment. It is for marketing purposes and does not constituteinvestmentresearch,investmentadvicenor a recommendationto anyreaderofthiscontenttobuyorsell investments.Ithasnotbeenprepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote theprohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination. RoleReversal Broadening Out DiversifytheDiversifiers Macroscenarios COMETOGETHER CRACKSWIDEN Tariffs weigh on US but some offset fromAl capex."Policy pouts" in Europe/China Surging Al investment and wealtheffects create broader economic boom Restrictive policy and unbalancedgrowth mean labour market cracks Drivingforces Sharp slowdown as householdsretrench and profits disappoint Us reaccelerates to around 3.0%Animal spirits and Al boost global growth US growth less exceptional at around2.0%, despite strong Al investment Growth Uncomfortably high inflation butrecession destroys demand Strong, broad-based demand keeps Usinflation around 3.0% US peaks above 3% before receding.Approaching target in many DMs/EMs Inflation MonetaryPolicy Initially more cautious Fed, but thenbig easing amid growth damage Easing cycle cut short but Fedaccommodates above-target inflation Fed cuts to neutral (3.00-3.50%),Modest easing across many DMs/EMs Geopolitics and trade tensions weighon already fragile confidence Growth pickup amid Al, and propertysector and confidence recovery Resilient but uneven growth as reflationpolicies offset tariff headwinds China Privatecreditasastrongvolatilitydampener Global profits growthis comingtogether Pastperformance does not predict future returns.Note: Nssdaq IBES profit dlats for 2024e (onlyl is very volatile, so 50%+ used. Source Refinitiv, HSBC Asset Management, Refinitiv, IBES, November 2025, The commentsry snd analysis presented in this document reflect theopinion of HSBC Asset Management on the marksts, sccording to the informstion avsilsble to date. They do not constitute any kind of commitment from HSBC Asset Menegement. Consequently, HSBC Asset Manegementwill nct be held responsible for any investment or disinvestment decision taken on the basis of the commentary and/or analysis in this dccument. Any forecast, projection or target where prcvided is indicative only anc is not Pastperformance does notpredict future returns, For Professional Clients and intermediaries within countries and territories set out below; and for Institutional Investors and Financial Advisors in the US. This document should not be distributedto or relied upon by Retail clients/investors The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. The performance figures contained in this documentrelate to past performance, which should not be seen as an indication of future returns. Future returns will depend, inter alla, on market conditions, investment manager's skill, risk level and fees.risk and potentially more volatile than those inherent in some established markets, Economies in Emerging Markets genorally are heavily dependent upon international trade and, accordingly, havebeen and may continue to be affected adversely by trade barriers, exchange controls, managed adjustments in relative currency values and other protectionist measures imposed or negotiated bythe countries and territories with which they trade. These economies also have been and may continue to be affected adversely by economic conditions in the countries and territories in whichthey trade. Ths contents of this dccument mav not be reprcduced or further distributed to any person or entity, whether in whole cr in psil, for any ourpcse. All non-au.h is: reprocluction or use of this clocument will be therespcnsibility of the usor anc may lead to legal prcceodings. The matorisl contained in this clocumont is for gonoral infcrmation purposes only anc does not constitute advice cr recommcndaticn to buy or sellundertake sry cbligation to updlste the forward-lookinquarantees of future pertormance or events anc invclve nsks anc uncertainties. Actual results muy difter materlally trom thcs= described in such fonwurd-looking statements as a result of various factors. e co notstatements contsined neaiepdne ressons why sctual results could differ from thcse projected in the forwsrd-lcokingstatements. This document hss noopinions expresssd herein sre thcse of HSBC Asset Management at the time of preparaticn, anc are subject to change st any time. These views may not necessarily indicate current portfolios' compcsition. Indlividualcontrectual value snd is not by any means intended as solicitetion, ncr s recommendaticn for the purchese or sale of any finsncial instrument in sny jurisdicticn in which such an offer is nct lewful. The views andporfocli