4季度25 NP将更具韧性；D19是26财年预期的关键

4Q25 NP to be more resilient;D19key to FY26E Target Price(Previous TPUp/DownsideCurrent Price Maintain BUY.WeviewLeapmotor’s 3Q25 vehicle gross margin of 13.3%asresilient, althoughitsnet profit of RMB150mn missed our expectation due to lower-than-expected other revenue.We believeLeapmotorcould accomplishboth ofitssalesvolume and net profit targets in FY25E,and expect its strong salesmomentum to continuethroughout FY26E. We project its overseas sales volume China Auto Wenjing DOU, CFA(852) 6939 4751douwenjing@cmbi.com.hk 3Q25 profitability of auto business still solid.Leapmotor’s 3Q25 revenuerose 37% QoQ to RMB19.5bn, stronger than our prior forecast by 5%, due tohigher-than-expected average selling price.Gross margin in 3Q25 rose0.9ppts QoQ to 14.5%, lower than our forecast,as otherrevenueincludingCO2creditsin Europeandservice income fromFAWmissed. The SG&A andR&D expense ratios combined fell 1.8ppts QoQ to 14.3% in 3Q25, largely in Ji SHI, CFA(852) 3761 8728shiji@cmbi.com.hk Austin Liang(852) 3900 0856austinliang@cmbi.com.hk 4Q25E earnings could be more resilient.We revise up our FY25E salesvolumeforecast by 20,000 units to 0.62mn units, implying 4Q25E salesvolumeof224,000 units(+29% QoQ).We project 4Q25E net profit to surge4.5x QoQ to RMB677mn after taking into account the potential income from Strongsales momentum to continue in FY26E.Leapmotor targetsoverseas sales volumeto be0.10-0.15mn unitsin2026, which could beattainable in our view, as new orders already exceed 25,000 units in Oct-Nov 2025.Weexpect Leapmotor’s total sales volume to rise 52% YoY to 0.94mnunits inFY25E, driven by theLafa 5andfour brand-new models(two D-seriesandtwo A-series models). The pre-launch deposits for the brand-newD19, whichhaditsdebut on 16 Oct,havefarexceeded management’s expectation.The success ofB10andB01also gives us more confidence in its upcoming Valuation/Key risks.Wemaintainour BUY rating and cut target price fromHK$80.00 to HK$73.00, based on 1.0xourFY26E P/S (prior 1.1x FY26E P/S),to reflect investors’ recent concerns about industrywide sales slowdown in2026.Our target price also corresponds to a28x FY26E P/E and20x FY27E Source: FactSet Related Report “Leapmotor(9863 HK)-Sustainableprofitaheadonstrongsales “Leapmotor (9863 HK)-2Q25 earningspreview and 2H25 outlook”-11 Jul2025 “Leapmotor (9863 HK)-More positiveon FY25E after 1Q25 beat”-20 May2025 Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content ofthis research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer;and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined inthe code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companiescovered in this report. CMBIGM Ratings BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOTRATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad marketbenchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a result of their dependence on the or its affiliate(s) to whom it is distributed.This report is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation tobuy or sell any security or any interest insecurities or enter into any transaction.NeitherCMBIGMnor any of its affiliates, shareholders, age