B&M欧洲价值零售公司24/25财年业绩符合预期，25/26财年市场共识看起来合理

Restricted - External BMEB.L/BME LNOVERWEIGHTEuropean General RetailNEUTRALPrice TargetGBp 415Price (03-Jun-25)GBp 332Potential Upside/Downside+25.0%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchEuropean General RetailJames Anstead+44 (0)20 3134 6166james.anstead@barclays.comBarclays, UKMatthew Clements+44 (0)20 7773 6018matthew.clements@barclays.comBarclays, UK Looking backwards to FY24/25Already known...As a reminder, B&M already disclosed 4Q/FY sales on 15 April with its trading update:•FY24/25 group sales.Group sales growth of +4.0% (constant-currency and 52-week basis).°B&M 4Q.Total sales growth of 5.4%, including LFL sales decline of -2.4% (or -1.8%excluding the Easter impact).°B&M France.Total sales growth (constant FX) of +9.1%, vs +12.5% in 3Q.°Heron Foods 4Q.Total sales growth of +1.5% in 4Q.•Cash.B&M said in April that its 24/25 year-end leverage (exc leases) would be"close to themid-point of our target 1.0-1.5x leverage range". Its net debt ended the year at £781m (vs ourforecast of £782m and the 23/24 closing net debt of £737m), implying leverage of 1.26x.•Store openings.B&M had already stated in April that it had made 45 gross store openings in24/25, with its net store count increasing by 36 (from 741 to 777).New information...See Figure 1 for fuller financial details, but the key new information is as follows:•Profitability.FY24/25 EBITDA (pre-IFRS 16 basis) of £620m. As a reminder, B&M begancalendar 2025 by guiding towards EBITDA of £620-650m, but trimmed this to £605-625m witha February profit warning. In April it further updated the guidance to the upper end of the£605-625m range.(The FY24/25 EBITDA outcome of £620m compares with the £616m that B&Mgenerated last year (52-week basis)).•Gross margin.B&M noted that its trading gross margin expanded by 42bps (from 36.3% to36.7%). The FY increase of 42bps compares with a 1H increase of 66bps, implying an increaseof ~20bps in 2H.•FY24/25 divisional split of profitability (EBITDA, pre-IFRS 16 basis).°B&M UK.£545m, margin of 12.2% (-45bps YoY). As a reminder, B&M is targeting a 12-13%margin in its core UK business°Heron.£30m, margin of 5.5% (-94bps YoY).°France. £48m, margin of 8.9% (-28bps YoY).•Adjusted diluted EPS(IFRS 16) 33.5p - implying a YoY decrease of -6.7% (52-week basis).•Regular FY DPS(p) was 15.0p (vs 14.7p last year).Looking forward to FY25/26•Current trading.No current trading update this morning, which is as we expected. B&M's 1Qwill finish on 28 June and we expect a trading update in mid July.•Profit guidance.B&M has said that current range and median of consensus operating costsreflects the impact of additional costs (NLW, NICS, input cost inflation) and mitigations(productivity and volume leverage). The company cites Bloomberg median consensus of£621m pre-IFRS 16 EBITDA (vs Barclays £625m) and £585m IFRS 16 EBIT (vs Barclays £592m). 2 •Store openings in FY25/26.B&M noted in April that the"pipeline for next year continues to berobust with 45 gross new store openings expected" - it has reiterated that today.RESULTS CALL:Results presentation at 09:30 (UK time) - register for webcast HERE.3 Source: Barclays Research, Bloomberg Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, James Anstead and Matthew Clements, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal viewsabout any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly orindirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues,a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities, the profitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of thefirm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset class covered by the analyst.Research analysts employed outside the US byaffiliatesof Barclays Capital Inc. are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Such non-US research analysts may not be associated persons of Barclays Capital Inc., which is a FINRA member, and therefore