欧特克公司（ADSK US）持有：26财年第一季度业绩强劲，估值合理

Issuer of report:HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.View HSBC GlobalResearch at:https://www.research.hsbc.comMAINTAIN HOLDTARGET PRICE(USD)278.00SHARE PRICE(USD)295.00(as of22 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(USDm)Market cap (USDm)3m ADTV (USDm)FINANCIALS AND RATIOS(USD)Year to01/2025aHSBC EPSHSBC EPS (prev)Change (%)Consensus EPSPE (x)Dividend yield (%)EV/EBITDA (x)ROE (%)52-WEEK PRICE(USD)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesStephen BerseyHead of US TechnologyResearchHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.stephen.bersey@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 4153Abhishek Shukla*, CFASenior Analyst, TechnologyHSBC Bank Middle East Ltd, DIFCabhishek2.shukla@hsbc.com+971 4 5093343Govinder Kumar*Analyst, US Technology ResearchHSBC Mexico, S.A., Institucion de Banca Multiple, GrupoFinanciero HSBCgovinder.kumar@hsbc.com.mx+52 55 8551 6650* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnotregistered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsUnited States05/24Target price: 278.00High: 321.27 Low: 199.93 Current: 295.00 ◆◆◆ PREVIOUS TARGET(USD)275.00UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE-5.8%63,114Free float63,114BBG454RIC01/2026e8.479.798.479.690.01.18.329.5234.830.10.00.041.441.883.676.011/24 01/2027e10.9210.771.410.9027.00.034.767.405/25 2Financial statementsYear to01/2025a01/2026e01/2027eProfit & loss summary(USDm)Revenue6,1316,9487,633EBITDA1,5341,4971,765Depreciation & amortisation-180-124-95Operating profit/EBIT1,3541,3731,670Net interest30-18-26PBT1,3841,3851,706HSBC PBT2,2712,6102,906Taxation-272-335-375Netprofit1,1121,0501,330HSBC net profit1,8392,1142,354Cash flow summary(USDm)Cash flow from operations1,0761,2211,617Capex-102-68-76Cash flow from investment-9035-76Dividends000Change in netdebt363-963-1,231FCF equity9741,1531,541Balance sheet summary(USDm)Intangible fixed assets1,7794,5124,063Tangible fixed assets5,5722,4712,487Current assets3,4824,6446,031Cash & others1,8862,8474,078Total assets10,83311,62612,580Operating liabilities5,9256,1366,150Gross debt2,2872,2852,285Net debt401-562-1,793Shareholders' funds2,5423,0233,963Invested capital3,0222,6432,352Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to01/2025a01/2026e01/2027eY-o-y % changeRevenue11.513.39.9EBITDA21.1-2.417.9Operating profit20.01.421.6PBT21.80.123.1HSBC EPS11.415.611.5Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)2.52.53.1ROIC44.336.752.2ROE83.676.067.4ROA10.59.511.2EBITDA margin25.021.523.1Operating profit margin22.119.821.9EBITDA/net interest (x)81.668.3Net debt/equity15.8-18.6-45.2Net debt/EBITDA (x)0.3-0.4-1.0CF from operations/net debt268.3Per share data(USD)EPS Rep (diluted)5.124.866.17HSBC EPS (diluted)8.479.7910.92DPS0.000.000.00Book value11.7114.0118.38Financials & valuation:Autodesk Inc Strong 1QFY26 results; FY26 guidance increased marginally◆RevenuewasUSD1,633m,+15.2% y-o-y and in-line withour(USD1,610m) and consensus(USD1,606m) estimates.◆Non-GAAPoperating profitwasUSD608m,+24.1% y-o-y and aboveour(USD578m) andconsensus (USD572m) estimates.◆Non-GAAPnet incomewasUSD494m,+22% y-o-y and aboveour(USD469m) andconsensus (USD465m) estimates.Non-GAAP EPSwasUSD2.29,+22.5% y-o-y and aboveour(USD2.17) and consensus(USD2.15) estimates.◆Autodesk increased its FY26 revenue and non-GAAP EPS guidance by 0.4% and 1.2%,respectively. The new guidance is in-line with our and consensus pre-results estimates.However, we note that Autodesk has beaten its quarterly EPS guidance by c5% on averagesince 1QFY23.Autodesk 1QFY26 results: Actual vs estimates1Q26aHSBCeActualvsHSBCeConsensusActualvsConsensus1Q25y-o-y4Q251,6331,6101.4%1,6061.7%1,41715.2%1,6391,5111,4911.3%1,4861.7%1,30815.5%1,52092.5%92.3%0.22pp92.5%0.03pp92.3%0.22pp92.7%6085785.2%5726.3%49024.1%60837.2%35.9%1.34pp35.6%1.64pp34.6%2.65pp37.1%4944695.3%4656.2%40522.0%49830.3%29.1%1.1pp29.0%1.3pp28.6%1.67pp30.4%2.292.175.5%2.156.6%1.8722.5%2.29Autodesk results: Actual vs guidance vspre-resultsestimates__________1Q26a______________________2Q26e_________________FY26e_________FY26e guidance___ActualConsensusGuidanceHSBC*Consens*GuidanceHSBC*Consens*New1,6331,6061,6051,6881,7181,7256,9416,9556,960608572NA633651NA2,5732,5622,55837.2%35.6%NA37.5%37.9%NA37.1%36.8%36.8%2.292.152.162.382.442.469.699.629.62Source: Company data, Visible Alpha, HSBC estimates *Pre-results estimates 3q-o-q-0.4%-0.6%-0.21pp0.0%0.14pp-0.8%-0.13pp0.0%Old6,9302,52936.5%9.51 Changesto ourestimatesWe increaseour FY26-28e revenueand non-GAAP EPSestimates by0-2% to reflecttheslightlystronger than expected1QFY26 results and business outlook. ValuationWe believe Autodeskshares arefairlyvaluedat 27.0x CY26e non-GAAP PE,a slight premiumtothe24.6x median for the sector. We expect Autodesk to report a CY24-27e non-GAAP EPSCAGR of 12.3%, which isin-line withthe10-15% typical in the sector.We valueAutodesk usingatarget PE of27.6x(from28.4x;in line with the sector medianforward12-month PE, which we consider appropriate because Autodesk’s growth profile iscomparable, albeit towards the lower end of the typical range for software companies)and ournext 12-month non-GAAP EPS of USD10.06(was USD9.69) to arrive at