去库加速叠加仓单注销，锂价突破震荡区间
锂价突破震荡区间 陈祎萱CFA高级分析师（有色金属）从业资格号：F3074710投资咨询号：Z0017769Tel:8621-63325888-2722Email:yixuan.chen@orientfutures.com 碳酸锂：震荡2025年10月19日 上周锂盐价格企稳反弹。LC2510收盘价环比+3.6%至7.53万元/吨，LC2511收盘价环比+4.1%至7.57万元/吨；SMM电池级及工业级碳酸锂现货均价环比-0.3%至7.34、7.11万元/吨。氢氧化锂价格略降，SMM粗颗粒及微粉型电池级氢氧化锂均价环比-0.5%至7.31、7.81万元/吨。电工价差环比持平于0.23万元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电池级碳酸锂价格贴水略走阔至0.03万元/吨。 上周仓单连续注销出库，环比上周五去化1.2万吨至3.07万吨，与此同时，据SMM数据，国内碳酸锂库存周环比去化0.2万吨至13.27万吨，去库节奏加速。需求旺季内，显性库存数据的持续好转对价格构成支撑，周内市场情绪回暖、盘面增仓反弹突破前期震荡区间。 向后看，在枧下窝暂未复产的情况下，旺季内持续去库的基本面对价格有所支撑，但进一步向上的驱动或仍有赖于供应端超预期扰动。短期建议关注去库的可持续性、以及现货市场的成交量价。策略方面，短期建议以区间操作为主，中线关注年内需求见顶回落后的沽空机会。套利方面，考虑到主力合约已切换至LC2601，基于流动性和交割博弈，建议同时关注LC2511-LC2601的反套机会以及LC2601对更远月合约的正套机会。 ★风险提示 如何理解碳酸锂的春季躁动？2024/03/29过剩已至，产业链如何出清？2023/12/28博弈加剧，不破不立2023/09/29渐趋理性，波动收敛2023/06/29 下游消费不及预期，新增产能建设进度与企业预期有所出入。 目录 1、去库加速叠加仓单注销，锂价突破震荡区间...................................................................................................................42、周内行业要闻回顾...............................................................................................................................................................53、产业链重点高频数据监测...................................................................................................................................................63.1、资源端：锂精矿现货报价持稳........................................................................................................................................63.2、锂盐：盘面企稳反弹........................................................................................................................................................63.3、下游中间品：三元及钴酸锂报价激增............................................................................................................................83.4、终端：9月新能源车渗透率达50%...............................................................................................................................104、风险提示.............................................................................................................................................................................10 图表目录 图表1：锂产业链重点高频价格监测............................................................................................................................................................4图表2：锂精矿现货均价................................................................................................................................................................................6图表3：MtCattlin锂精矿生产利润...............................................................................................................................................................6图表4：GFEX碳酸锂主力合约收盘价（LC2511）....................................................................................................................................6图表5：GFEX碳酸锂期限结构....................................................................................................................................................................6图表6：国内碳酸锂现货均价及电工价差....................................................................................................................................................7图表7：碳酸锂基差（SMM电碳现货均价-GFEX近月）..........................................................................................................................7图表8：国内氢氧化锂现货均价....................................................................................................................................................................7图表9：海内外氢氧化锂价差........................................................................................................................................................................7图表10：国内电池级氢氧化锂-碳酸锂价差.................................................................................................................................................8图表11：锂盐厂理论生产利润......................................................................................................................................................................8图表12：磷酸铁锂价格走势..........................................................................................................................................................................8图表13：磷酸铁锂电芯（动力型）均价......................................................................................................................................................8图表14：三元材料价格走势..........................................................................................................................................................................9图表15：523方形三元电芯（动力型）均价................................................................................................................................................9图表16：钴酸锂价格走势..............................................................................................................................................................................9图表17：钴酸锂电芯（消费型）均价...............................................................................................................................
