欧盟碳边界调整机制的宏观经济暴露：以中东和中亚为例（英）

Macroeconomic Exposureto the EU’s Carbon BorderAdjustment Mechanism The Case of the Middle East and CentralAsia Mariz Abdou, Hasan Dudu, Kerstin Gerling, and Dalia Kadissi WP/25/182 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025SEP IMF Working Paper Middle East and Central Asia Department Macroeconomic Exposure totheEU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism:The Caseofthe Middle East and Central Asia Prepared byMarizAbdou, Hasan Dudu, Kerstin Gerling, and Dalia Kadissi* Authorized for distribution by Alexander TiemanAugust2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:Taking the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) asgiven, our paperevaluates the impact of this terms-of-trade shock on the Middle East and Central Asia (ME&CA). Using a novelmethodology and fresh data applied to the latest CBAM legislation, we both quantify and decompose thefinancial burden countriesface as their exports to the EU become subject to a greenhouse gas-based feestarting in January 2026. Our analysis reveals thatwhile the average effects of CBAM in ME&CA are modest,the region will shoulder one of the highest burdens worldwide, totaling US$1.7 billionannually(equivalentto0.03 percent of GDP and a 14percent surcharge on CBAM exports to the EU). The Middle East, North Africa,Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) subregion will bear a greater share of this burden than the Caucasus andCentral Asia (CCA) due to stronger trade ties with the EU and higher emission intensity. Substantial country-and sector-level differences in CBAM exposure emphasize the need fortailored policy responses to mitigatethe broader macroeconomic effects. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Abdou, M., Dudu, H., Gerling, K., Kadissi, D., 2025.Macroeconomic Exposureto the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: The Case of the Middle East and Central Asia,IMFWorking PaperNo:WP/25/182Washington, DC Contents Acronyms and Abbreviations............................................................................................................................4Glossary...............................................................................................................................................................51. Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................72. Literature Review..........................................................................................................................................103. Methodology..................................................................................................................................................123.1 Analytical Framework.............................................................................................................................123.2 Data........................................................................................................................................................153.3 Scope.....................................................................................................................................................164. Key Findings..................................................................................................................................................174.1 Sizing ME&CA’s Overall CBAM Exposure: Emission Coverage and Burden........................................174.2 Unpacking ME&CA’s CBAM Exposure: Key Drivers..............................................................................184.2.1MENAP....................................................................................................................................184.2.2CCA.........................................................................................................................................235. Conclusion.....................................................................................................................................................25Appendix I. Country Sample and Groupings..................................................................................................28Appendix II. CBAM Emission Coverage..........................................................................................................29Appendix III. CBAM Commodity Coverage.....................................................................................................30Appendix IV. Relative Price Bias.............