碳边界调整机制（CBAM）暴露指数方法说明（英）2025

CARBON BORDER ADJUSTMENTMECHANISM (CBAM) EXPOSURE INDICESMETHODOLOGICAL NOTETRADE, INVESTMENT AND COMPETITIVENESSPublic Disclosure Authorized June 2025 M. Maliszewska, C. Fischer, E. Jung (The World Bank) andM. Chepeliev (Purdue University)TRADE, INVESTMENT AND COMPETITIVENESSTRADE, INVESTMENT AND COMPETITIVENESSPublic Disclosure Authorized CARBON BORDER ADJUSTMENTMECHANISM (CBAM) EXPOSURE INDICESMETHODOLOGICAL NOTE1TRADE, INVESTMENT AND COMPETITIVENESS June 2025 M. Maliszewska, C. Fischer, E. Jung (The World Bank) andM. Chepeliev (Purdue University) © [2025] International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet:www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings,interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of TheWorld Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data includedin this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in theinformation, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes,or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on anymap in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal statusof any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of theprivileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination ofits knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as longas full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World BankPublications, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625;e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. TABLEOF CONTENTS Executive Summary1 Introduction 1. Background on CBAM Regulation 2. Methodology52.1 Measures Deployed in the Calculation of CBAM Exposure Indices and their Data Sources62.2 CBAM Exposure Indices8 3. Key Findings 3.1 CBAM Trade Exposure Index93.2 CBAM Aggregate Trade Exposure123.3 CBAM Output Exposure133.4 CBAM Economic Exposure15 4. Limitations of the Approach16 References 18 Abstract The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) aims to level the playingfield by applying the same carbon price faced by domestic producers underthe Emission Trading System to the emissions embodied in certain importedgoods. Differences in emissions intensity between EU and developing-economyproducerswill then influence the competitiveness of firms in developingeconomies exporting aluminum, cement, electricity, fertilizer, iron and steel, andhydrogen to the EU. Indicators are developed to assess the potential exposure ofdeveloping economies to the CBAM, using measures of excess carbon paymentsrelative to EU producers expressed as shares of total exports, gross sectoraloutput, and GDP. Although macroeconomic impacts are expected to be small,some countries (like Mozambique in aluminum and Egypt in fertilizer) could seeeconomically meaningful reductions in competitiveness in the EU market. A fewcountries with relatively low emission intensity of production may stand to gainmarket share. Acknowledgements We are very grateful to Mona Haddad, Aart Kraay, Daniel Lederman, SebastienDessus and Enrique Aldaz-Caroll for helpful feedback and suggestions. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism2(EU CBAM) complementsthe EU Emissions Trading System3(EU ETS), which limits greenhouse-gasemissions by requiring covered facilities to surrender carbon allowances —permits to emit one metric ton of carbon dioxide (CO2) or its equivalent—for alltheir emissions.The supply of these permits is capped by legislation and allocatedin some part to emitters, who may trade them, and in large part by auction, andthe resulting market for allowances leads to a price on carbon, recently in therange of USD80-100. While free allowances to domestic industries have helpedoffset some cost increases from carbon pricing, with greater stringency comes anincreasing risk of carbon leakage, where production shifts to regions with loweremission costs. The EU thus plans to phase out free allocations and phase in theCBAM, which mitigates leakage by applying the same carbon price to importedproducts, aligning import costs with costs of domestic production. Importerswill need to purchase CBAM certificates, covering direct and (for some products)indirect emissions, encouraging cleaner production and influencing trade