2025年8月月报

Vol. 77 No 8 Table of Content Overview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Global and European setting. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Monetary policy and banking business. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 1 Monetary policy and money market developments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 2 Monetary developments in the euro area. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 3 German banks’ deposit and lending business with domestic customers. . . . 65Current rise in housing loans used primarily for purchasing existingproperties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69List of references. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177Financial markets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 801 Financial market environment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 812 Exchange rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83Measures of the appreciation of the euro in the monetary policy debate. . . . . 86Recent data revisions indicate less favourable price competitiveness forGermany and the euro area. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 913 Securities markets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 963.1 Bond market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 963.2 Equity market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100List of references. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177 Recent revisions to German GDP and their impact on the economic picture. 107 2 Fall-off effects weighed on industrial output and exports, whilstinvestment remained weak. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 3 Labour market remains weak. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 4 Negotiated wages rose significantly more strongly for a time. . . . . . . . . . . . 118 5 The inflation rate fell distinctly in the second quarter. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 6 Economic activity could languish in the third quarter. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 List of references. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177 Public finances. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129 1 General government budgetThis article relates to data from the nationalaccounts and Maastricht debt. This is followed by reporting on budgetarydevelopments (government finance statistics) and budget planning.. . . . . . . 130 1.1 Expansionary fiscal policy adopted. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 1.2 Higher deficits only partially focused on infrastructure and defence. . . . . . . . . 131 1.3 EU rules: Germany has submitted plan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132 The EU fiscal guidelines for Germany explainedThe EU rules are verycomplex. This supplementary information does not attempt to give a preciseand detailed explanation of these rules and guidelines. Instead, terms,guidelines and methods are presented in a simplified manner where they givecontext to Germany’s MTP.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 2 Tax revenueThis and the following chapters discuss budgetarydevelopments (government finance statistics) and budget plans. These differfrom reporting pursuant to the national accounts in the previous generalgovernment analysis.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 2.1 Dynamic growth in the first half of 2025 will become more moderate over theremainder of the year. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 2.2 Tax relief for enterprises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 3 Central government finances. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 3.1 Steeply rising deficits planned for 2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .