韩国经济展望

PRESSRELEASE August28,2025ResearchDepartment&Officeof Economic ModelingandPolicyAnalysis KoreaEconomicOutlook(August2025) Summary ▣GDPgrowth rate for2025 has been revisedslightlyupward to0.9%from0.8%inMay. ￭Consumption is improving and exports are stronger than expected,whileconstructioninvestmentremainsweak. ￭Domestic demand is expected to continue its recovery,but exports areprojectedtograduallyslowduetotheimpactofU.S.tariffs. ￭Thefuturegrowthpathremainssubject toelevateduncertainty,arisingfromfactors such as U.S.-China trade negotiations,tariffs onsemiconductors,anddevelopmentsintheconstructionsector. ▣CPIinflationfor2025isprojectedat2.0%,comparedwith1.9%intheMayforecast. ￭Despite rising prices of agricultural and marine products,inflationisexpected to hover around the Bank of Korea’s target of 2%,reflectinglow demand-side pressures and stable global oil prices. ￭The future inflation path is expected to be influenced bydomesticandglobal economic conditions,movements in the exchange rateandoil prices,and government price stabilization measures. KoreaEconomicOutlook IndigoBookAugust2025 Ⅰ.Ⅰ.Ⅰ.EconomicEconomicEconomicConditionsConditionsConditions.............................................111 Ⅱ.Ⅱ.Ⅱ.EconomicOutlookEconomicOutlookEconomicOutlook.................................................444 Ⅲ.RiskstotheOutlookⅢ.RiskstotheOutlookⅢ.RiskstotheOutlook..........................................777 Appendix1.ForecastSummaryAppendix2.QuarterlyForecastsfortheOne-Year-AheadHorizon ▸GDP growth in 2025 is projected at 0.9%,slightly above the May forecastof0.8%.The upward revision reflects clear signs of improvements inconsumptionand solid export performance,despite weaker-than-expectedconstructioninvestment. ▸CPI inflation is expected to stand at 2.0%in 2025,up from 1.9%in theMayforecast,as adverse weather conditions drive up prices of agriculturalandmarineproducts,morethanoffsettingthedeclineinglobaloilprices. Ⅰ.EconomicConditionsⅠ.EconomicConditionsⅠ.EconomicConditions Ⅰ-Ⅰ-Ⅰ-1.GlobalDevelopments1.GlobalDevelopments1.GlobalDevelopments ▢DespiteeasingtradeuncertaintyfollowingaseriesoftradenegotiationsbetweentheUnited States and major economies,the global economy is projected toslowgraduallyastheimpactoftariffsmaterializes. §In the United States,inflation is expected to accelerate while growth moderates,as therepercussionsof tariff hikes deepen.Euro-area growth is likely to remain modest,with U.S.tradepolicy dampening the effects of earlier accommodative monetary measures.Growth inChinais projected to exceed the previous forecast,supported by stronger export flowsfollowingthesuspensionoftariffswiththeU.S. §Global trade is forecast to moderate as the front-loading effect wanes.The globalsemiconductorindustry is expected to sustain its expansion,driven by robust AI-relatedinvestment,although potential U.S.tariff measures on semiconductors and overinvestment inAIremainasriskfactors. §Globaloilprices(Brentcrude)areprojectedtodeclinetothelow-to-midUSD60s,reflectingasooner-than-anticipatedrecoveryinproductionbyOPEC+. Ⅰ-Ⅰ-Ⅰ-2.DomesticEconomicConditions2.DomesticEconomicConditions2.DomesticEconomicConditions ▢Intermsof domestic economic conditions,despite weaknessintheconstructionsector,supportive factors–such as the second supplementary budget and arapidimprovementineconomicsentiment*–somewhatprevailoverheadwinds. *CompositeConsumerSentimentIndex:Jan-Nov,2024:101.0→Dec:88.2→Jan-Apr,2025:93.4→May:101.8→Jun:108.7→Aug:111.4 §Nominal wage growth is expected to remain subdued,following a weaker corporateperformanceinthesecondquarter(Q14.5%→Apr-May2.6%). §Corporate bond rates fluctuated within a narrow range,influenced by supply-demandconditionsin government bonds and movements in U.S.Treasury yields.The Won to U.S.dollarexchangeratehasexhibitedvolatilityinlinewithU.S.economicindicatorsandshiftingexpectationsfor Federal Reserve rate cuts,while uncertainty in the trade environment hasactedas an upward factor,keeping the exchange rate in the upper-1,300 won range.Housingprices continued to decline in non-metropolitan areas,while gains in the Seoulmetropolitanarea had accelerated before moderating somewhat following the governmentstabilizationmeasuresannouncedonJune27. AssumptionsontheU.S.TariffPolicy ▢U.S.tariffpolicyisassumedtomaintainthecurrentreciprocalanditem-specifictariffs*. *IncaseofKorea,comparedwithMay,reciprocaltariffswereincreased(from10%to15%),tariffsonsteelandaluminiumwereraised(from25%to 50%)withan expanded list of items,while tariffs on automobiles werelowered(from25%to15%). ▪Tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals are assumed at 15%,higher than in the Maybaselineof10%,althoughtheirimpositionispostponedfromQ32025tosometimein2026. ➡➡➡TheaveragetariffrateisassumedtoremainbroadlyinlinewiththeMaybaselinescenario. Ⅱ.EconomicOutlookⅡ.EconomicOutlookⅡ.EconomicOutlook Ⅱ-Ⅱ-Ⅱ-1.GDPGrowth1.GDPGrowth1.GDPGrowth ▢GDP growth in 2025 is projected to 0.9%,revised up slightly from 0.8%in