韩国经济展望

This report is the English version of the“Korea Economic Outlook”published on Please contact the Research Department at the email address below if you have anyquestions regarding the contents or would like to request permission in advance for Please credit the source when quoting, reproducing, or copying the contents of this Research Department, Business Cycle Team, Bank of Korea Contents Executive Summary Macroeconomic Conditions and Outlook Global EconomyKorea’s EconomyMain Premises of the Baseline Outlook11218 Economic GrowthCurrent AccountPricesEmployment19323638 3.Risk Assessment Key Risks to the OutlookDistribution of Growth Projections by Market ParticipantsScenario Analysis424243 < FYI >Background of the Recent Sustained Strength of the U.S. Economy Executive Summary Korea’s economy is expected to grow by 1.0% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, both higher than theprevious forecast. Despite the headwinds from U.S. tariffs, the recovery in domestic demand CPI inflation is forecast at 2.1% in both 2025 and 2026, as the downward pressure from lowerglobal oil prices is more than offset by the effects of the weaker Korean won and an easing of ECONOMIC CONDITIONS The global economy is forecast to grow better than expected, supported by expansionary policystances in major countries and robust global AI investment, while trade uncertainties have eased TheUnited Statesis expected to grow at around 2%, bolstered by expansionary monetary and fiscal policies and increased investment mainly in AI infrastructure, despite the slowdown in employment.Theeuro areais likely to continue its gradual improvement in growth, supported by eased financialconditions and fiscal expansion, including increased defense spending. AlthoughChina’s growth isexpected to be stronger than anticipated as U.S.-China trade tensions ease, its underlying momentum Despite trade diversification efforts by major economies, growth inglobal tradeis expected to slow,given the normalization of pre-tariff front-loading and the persistent effects of the tariff increases. Intheglobal semiconductor industry,strong demand for both high-performance and general-purposechips is likely to continue on the back of robust AI-related investment. The possibility of U.S. tariffs Global oil prices(Brent crude) are projected to decline for some time amid increased supply frommajor oil-producing countries and to rise moderately starting in the second half of 2026 as global oil Domestic economic conditions are expected to remain favorable, supported by strong economicsentiment and fiscal expansion. However, housing prices and volatility in financial markets * Composite Consumer Sentiment Index: Jan. - Apr. 2025 avg. 93.4→May 101.8→Aug. 111.4→Nov. 112.4 Nominal wage growthis expected to remain subdued for the time being, before gradually recovering Corporate bond rates have increased amid heightened concerns over financial stability andexpectations of better economic conditions. Thewon to U.S. dollar exchange ratehas remained underupward pressure, reflecting the expansion of resident overseas investment.Housing pricesin the Seoul Assumptions on the U.S. tariff policy It is assumed thatU.S. tariff policywill maintain its current schedule, including, for Korea, a 15%reciprocal tariff, a 15% tariff on automobiles, and a 50% tariff on steel*. # A tariff reduction on Korean automobiles taking effect in November, an exemption for genericpharmaceuticals, and zero-tariff for aircraft parts and natural resources unavailable in the U.S. Tariffs onsemiconductors and pharmaceuticalsare assumed to be 15%, unchanged from theAugust baseline, although the imposition on semiconductors is postponed from Q1 2026 to Q3 2026. Sources: Bank of Korea, Bloomberg. Economic Outlook GDP growth is forecast at 1.0% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, both above the August projections of0.9% and 1.6%, respectively. Growth in 2027 is projected to be 1.9%, a slightly faster pace than Fourth-quarterGDP growth will decline to 0.2%, due to the base effect from the previous quarter’sstrong 1.2% growth and slower export growth, particularly in tariff-imposed items. In2026, growth is expected to strengthen led by domestic demand, as the recovery in consumptioncontinues and construction weakness eases. Exports are likely to slow due to U.S. tariff pressures,although semiconductor exports are anticipated to remain robust. Overall, the growth rate is projected In2027, the economy is forecast to expand by 1.9%, supported by favorable domestic demand and The 0.2-percentage point upward revision of GDP growth rate in 2026 is attributed to a strongerglobal semiconductor cycle (approx. +0.1 percentage point), reduced uncertainty following theAPEC meeting and the postponed imposition of semiconductor tariffs in the baseline assumption(+0.1 percentage point), fiscal expansion (+0.1 percentage point), and easing of U.S.-China tradetensions (+0.05 percentage points), partly offset by th