韩国经济展望

This report is the English version of the“Korea Economic Outlook”published onSeptember 5, 2025. Please contact the Research Department at the email address below if you have anyquestions regarding the contents or would like to request permission in advance forreproducing or copying the contents of this report for commercial purposes. Please credit the source when quoting, reproducing, or copying the contents of thisreport for non-commercial purposes. Research Department, Business Cycle Team, Bank of Koreaecontrend@bok.or.kr Contents Executive Summary Macroeconomic Conditions and Outlook 1.Domestic and International Economic Conditions Global EconomyKorea’s EconomyMain Premises of the Baseline Outlook11420 2.Macroeconomic Outlook for Korea21 Economic GrowthCurrent AccountPricesEmployment21293133 Scenario Analysis40 <FYI> Why does the Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Prices Emerge Slowly?4 Status and Prospects of The Taiwanese Economy Following U.S. TariffImpositions9 Current Domestic Labor Market Status: Spider Chart Analysis36 42 Executive Summary GDP growth in 2025 is projected at 0.9%, slightly above the May forecast of 0.8%. The upwardrevision reflects clear signs of improvements in consumption and solid export performance,despite weaker-than-expected construction investment. CPI inflation is expected to stand at 2.0% in 2025, up from 1.9% in the May forecast, as adverseweather conditions drive up prices of agricultural and marine products, more than offsettingthe decline in global oil prices. ECONOMIC CONDITIONS Global economic growth is projected to slow gradually as the effects of tariffs materialize, eventhough uncertainty has eased somewhat following tariff agreements between the United Statesand major economies. TheUnited Statesis expected to experience rising inflation, while economic growth is projected toslow moderately, as the impact of tariffs gradually intensifies. Theeuro areais forecast to show amoderate growth rate due to the impact of U.S. tariff policy, despite the support by monetary policyeasing to date. Growth inChinais projected to exceed the previous expectations, supported byfavorable exports following the suspension of the heightened tariffs. Global tradeis expected to see a slowdown in growth as the effects offront‑loading gradually fade.Theglobal semiconductor industrycontinues to expand on the back of robust investment in AI,although potential U.S. tariffs on semiconductors and concerns over excessive investment in AI remainrisk factors. Global oil prices(Brent crude) are expected to decline to the low-to mid USD 60s as the recovery ofOPEC+ crude production accelerates. In terms of domestic economic conditions, despite weakness in the construction sector, supportivefactors – such as the second supplementary budget and a rapid improvement in economicsentiment* – somewhat prevail over headwinds. * Composite Consumer Sentiment Index:Jan.-Nov. 2024 101.0 → Dec. 88.2 → Jan.-Apr. 2025 93.4 → May 101.8 → Jun. 108.7 →Aug. 111.4 Nominal wagegrowth is expected to remain subdued, following a weaker corporate performance inthe second quarter (Q14.5%→Apr.-May 2.6%). Corporate bond ratesfluctuated within a narrow range, influenced by supply-demand conditions ingovernment bonds and movements in U.S. Treasury yields. TheWon to U.S. dollar exchange ratehasexhibited volatility in line with U.S. economic indicators and shifting expectations for Federal Reserverate cuts, while uncertainty in the trade environment has acted as an upward factor, keeping theexchange rate in the upper-1,300 won range.Housing pricescontinued to decline in non-metropolitanareas, while gains in the Seoul metropolitan area had accelerated before moderating somewhatfollowing the government stabilization measures announced on June 27. Assumptions on the U.S. tariff policy U.S. tariff policyis assumed tomaintain the current reciprocal and item-specific tariffs*. * In case of Korea, compared with May, reciprocal tariffs were increased (from 10% to 15%), tariffs on steeland aluminum were raised (from 25% to 50%) with an expanded list of items, while tariffs on automobileswere lowered (from 25% to 15%). Tariffs onsemiconductors and pharmaceuticalsare assumed at 15%, higher than in the Maybaseline of 10%, although their imposition is postponed from Q3 2025 to sometime in 2026. Trade Policy Uncertainty Index(TPU),Korea’s Political Uncertainty Index(PUI),and Composite Consumer Sentiment Index(CCSI) Economic Outlook GDP growth in 2025 is projected to 0.9%, revised up slightly from 0.8% in the May forecast, asconsumption strengthens on the back of the supplementary budget and stronger economicsentiment, and exports, led by semiconductors, remain solid, while construction investmentcontinues to be weaker than expected. GDP rose 0.6% in thesecond quarterof 2025, rebounding from a 0.2% contraction in the first quarter,supported by an improvement in consumption and solid export performance, desp