韩国央行-经济展望（2024年11月）-12页

PRESSRELEASE Nov28,2024ResearchDepartment&Officeof Economic ModelingandPolicyAnalysis EconomicOutlook(Nov 2024) Summary ▣Bankof Korea forecasts GDPgrowth at 2.2%in 2024 and 1.9%in2025. ￭The growth forecasts forthis year and nextyear have been reviseddownwardby 0.2%p,respectively,in light of slower-than-expectedexportgrowth due to intensifying competition with major countriesinkey industries and strengthening trade protectionism,amiddomesticdemand recovering at a moderate pace. ￭Thefuturepathofgrowth isexpectedtobesignificantlyinfluencedbythe global trade environment,trends in semiconductor exports,andthepaceofrecoveryindomesticdemand. ▣CPIinflationisprojectedtobeat1.9%in2025. ￭The forecast,compared to the previous outlook in August,hasbeenrevised downward by 0.2%p due to lower oil prices andlimiteddemand-sidepressures. ￭Uncertainty regarding geopolitical risks,exchange rate movements,andeconomicconditionsathomeandabroadpersists. ▸Economic growth is expected to moderate from 2.2%this year to 1.9%nextyear,withtherecoveryofdomestic demandremaining moderateandgrowthin exports,which has been strong over the past quarters,graduallyslowingdown. ▸CPIinflationisexpectedtoslowdownfrom2.3%thisyearto1.9%nextyearduetoloweroilpricesandlimiteddemand-sidepressures. Ⅰ.ECONOMICCONDITIONSⅠ.ECONOMICCONDITIONSⅠ.ECONOMICCONDITIONS Ⅰ-Ⅰ-Ⅰ-1.GlobalDevelopments1.GlobalDevelopments1.GlobalDevelopments ▢The global economy,despite the progress in disinflation and in the monetarypolicyeasing cycle,faces increased downside risks due to rising uncertaintysurroundingthe economic policies of major countries following the U.S.presidentialelection. §The United States economy will continue its favorable pace of growth mainly driven bydomesticdemand,but uncertainty surrounding the new administration‘s economic policiesremainshigh.In the Euro area,growth will gradually recover on the back of increase inhouseholds‘real income,but the slowdown in the manufacturing sector and heightenedpoliticaluncertainty are expected to act as downside factors.In China,the divergencebetweenstrong exports and weak domestic demand continues,with downward pressuresincreasingduetopotentialtradeconflicts.However,thegovernment‘sstimulus measuresareexpectedtomitigatesuchdownwardpressures. §Globaltradewilllikelyimproveaidedbytheeasingofmonetarytightening,butthepaceofgrowthis expected to be lower than previously forecasted due to changes in global tradepolicies,such as increases in the United States‘tariffs.The global semiconductor market isprojectedto continue its upcycle for some time,primarily drivenbydemand for AI servers.Thereafter,the pace of growth will be significantly influenced by the adoption rate ofon-deviceAItechnologies. §Global oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the$70 range,markedly lower than thepreviousforecast.Thisisattributedtoaslowdowninglobaloildemand,particularlyinChina,amidstable crude oil supply conditions.Oil prices,however,may exhibit high volatility,dependingonthedevelopmentofgeopoliticalconflicts. Ⅰ-Ⅰ-Ⅰ-2.DomesticEconomicConditions2.DomesticEconomicConditions2.DomesticEconomicConditions ▢Domestic economic conditions are expected to act as downward pressures ongrowth,as wages and fiscal spending have come in lower than previousexpectations,amidheightenedfinancialmarketvolatilityfromfallingstockprices. §Nominal wagehasbeengrowingatthemid3%rangethankstospecialbonuspaymentsbyexportersand large corporations,but for next year,downside risks have increased.In thehousingmarket,the volume of transactions has decreased and the price increases haveslowedduetotheimpactoflendingregulations,butthesupplyshortagecouldpotentiallybeanunderlyingupwardpressure. §Government bond interest rates have fallen,showing a differentiated movement from thelargeincrease in US Treasury bond interest rates before and after the US presidentialelection.TheWontoU.S.Dollar exchangerate,exceedinginitialexpectations,isexpectedtofluctuatearoundthe 1,400won range for thetime beingduetofactorssuchasstrongUSemploymentand the Trump trade.Stock prices declined significantly,driven byweaker-than-expectedperformance from major corporations and deteriorating exportconditions. ※Our outlook is based on the following base scenario regarding major changes in U.S.economicpolicies.The future path of growth may be significantly influenced by thetimingand magnitude of actual policy implementations and the responses of tradingpartners. Ⅱ.ECONOMICOUTLOOKⅡ.ECONOMICOUTLOOKⅡ.ECONOMICOUTLOOK Ⅱ-Ⅱ-Ⅱ-1.GDPGrowth1.GDPGrowth1.GDPGrowth ▢GDPgrowthisexpectedtobeat2.2%thisyearand1.9%nextyear,lowerthanthepreviousforecastof2.4%and2.1%,respectively,andslowingto1.8%in2026. §This year,GDPgrowthrate is projectedat 2.2%,lower thanthe previously forecasted2.4%inAugust,duetoweakeninggrowthtrendsfromtheslowdowninexportsamidamoderaterecoveryindomesticdemand. §Nextyear,theeconomywilllikelycontinuetogrowatamoderatepace,primarilydrivenbyconsumption.But with export growth slowing more than previ