基础化工行业专题报告：“反内卷”趋势下，化工多个子行业有望盈利修复
EPS（元）PE（倍）评级2024A2025E2026E2024A2025E2026E-0.580.360.95/3915推荐0.981.952.37231210推荐 证券研究报告12025年07月28日维持评级[Table_Author]刘海荣执业证书：S0100522050001liuhairong@mszq.com费晨洪执业证书：S0100524080004feichenhong@mszq.com李家豪执业证书：S0100524010002lijiahao@mszq.com刘隆基执业证书：S0100524080006liulongji@mszq.com曾佳晨执业证书：S0100524040002zengjiachen@mszq.com李金凤执业证书：S0100524070003lijinfeng@mszq.com1.化工行业周报（20250714-20250720）：本周TDI、液氯、三氯甲烷、维生素VD3等产品涨幅居前-2025/07/212.化工行业周报（20250707-20250713）：本周液氯、三氯甲烷、HIPS、氯化钾等产品涨幅居前-2025/07/143.机器人行业专题报告：人形机器人量产在即，重视相关新材料投资机会-2025/07/084.苯酚价格探底点评：海外产能关停，国内苯酚行业有望否极泰来-2025/07/085.化工行业周报（20250630-20250706）：本周液氯、丁酮、TDI、环氧氯丙烷等产品涨幅居前-2025/07/07 推荐分析师邮箱：分析师邮箱：分析师邮箱：分析师邮箱：分析师邮箱：分析师邮箱：相关研究 目录1 PPI同比降幅较大，“反内卷”势在必行....................................................................................................................32涤纶长丝：“反内卷”政策有望遏制供给端快速上量.................................................................................................62.1涤纶长丝产业链..................................................................................................................................................................................62.2过去几年行业供给端均正增长，需求端则相对承压...................................................................................................................63 PC：供给增速放缓，进口替代助力供需平衡改善......................................................................................................93.1 PC行业扩产潮进入尾声，开工率修复...........................................................................................................................................93.2 PC行业进口替代和反向出口趋势明显.........................................................................................................................................104 MDI：内外需求向好，景气价格有望持续..............................................................................................................114.1 MDI行业价格维持较好景气度......................................................................................................................................................114.2 MDI供应格局集中，外企经营压力较大......................................................................................................................................135瓶级PET：联合减产，反内卷第一枪正式打响.......................................................................................................175.1瓶级聚酯是饮料包装的刚需材料..................................................................................................................................................175.2国内产能稳步提升，行业集中度较高..........................................................................................................................................195.3需求增长迅速，出口成为重要增长动力......................................................................................................................................205.4联合减产力度加大，“反内卷”正当时........................................................................................................................................215.5推荐标的：万凯新材.......................................................................................................................................................................226有机硅：供需平衡表有望修复，DMC盈利有望回升.............................................................................................246.1有机硅是应用广泛的硅基新材料..................................................................................................................................................246.2国内产能扩产高峰已过，供需平衡表有望逐步修复.................................................................................................................246.3 DMC价格处于历史低位.................................................................................................................................................................257钛白粉：中长期钛矿成本支撑稳固，钛白粉价格有望逐步抬升...............................................................................277.1钛白粉是应用最广泛的白色颜料..................................................................................................................................................277.2硫酸法工艺受限，新产能释放节奏或好于预期.........................................................................................................................277.3钛白粉价格处于历史低位...............................................................................................................................................................288三氯蔗糖：需求端强势增长，价格顺周期上涨.......................................................................................................308.1 2021年后供给端快速增长.............................................................................................................................................................308.2推荐标的：金禾实业.......................................................................................................................................................................329煤制烯烃：成本优势扩大，增长潜力强劲..............................................................................................................339.1煤制烯烃路线成本优势扩大......................................
