哈萨克斯坦谷物与饲料市场年度报告

Date:July 09, 2025Report Number:KZ2025-0009 ProductionPost is forecasting MY 2025/26 wheat production sharply down from last year’s bumper crop to 13.8million metric tons (MMT). This steep drop in production is mainly attributed to farmers’intention togrow less wheat and plant more sunflowers and other oilseeds because these crops are considered moreprofitable. With farmers planting fewer acres of wheat, Post is revising its area harvested projectionYields are forecast at about 1.11 MT per hectare (HA), down from last yearbut still within the normalrange. Although this forecast assumes favorable weather conditions and negligible loss from antelopeand locust, Post assesses wheat yields will decline year-to-year because some farmers are strugglingfinancially, even with government support, to purchase sufficient amounts of fertilizer and plantThe Ministry of Agriculture announced its MY 2025/26 planted area predictions for major row crops,showing a contraction in wheat production and increases in allother crop categories. See table 1. Postused this data to assess the direction of MY 2025/26 wheat and barley production and relied on industryand other market sources to develop our PSD area harvested and production numbers.Table 1. Announced Planted Area, thousand hectaresMY2024/2516,67613,1593,5172,9351,2871,6483,22147923,311Source:Ministryof Agriculture briefing from May 13, 20251/ The data does not break out the planted area for barley.The Akmola, Kostanay, and North Kazakhstan regions bordering Russia on the north are the threeleading wheat-producing regions in Kazakhstan. According to market sources, some farmers in Akmolaswitched some of their fields from wheat to oilseeds this season in search of higher returns. This shift tooilseeds also reportedly occurred in the other top wheat growing regions and elsewhere in the country.The wheat growing regions have enjoyed favorable weather conditions, though not as good as last year.Thegrowth of the early wheat crop is even and dense, according to farmers who are predicting a decentwheat crop in MY 2025/26, though smaller in size because of the shift to oilseed production. Satellitedata corroborates farmers hopeful prediction. NDVI ismostly within the normal range for all threeregions (Figure 1), and precipitation appears to be slightly lower than last year (Figure 2). lower to 12.4 million hectares.protection products.MY2025/26Change inhectaresGrains16,561-115Wheat12,972-187Other Grains3,58972Oilseeds Crops3,313378Sunflower1,408121Other Oilseeds1,905257Feeding Crops (Barley, Oats, Rye, etc.) 1/3,347126Other Crops50223Total Planted Area23,723412 MY 2024/25 wheat production estimate is revised lower to align with the latest figures released by theKazakhstanGrain Union. Post assesses that the KGU estimate more closely reflects the situation on theground.Figure 1. NDVI in Akmola, Kostanay and North Kazakhstan regionsSource:FAS IPAD Crop ExplorerFigure 2. Precipitation and Percent of Normal Precipitation Source:FAS IPAD Crop ExplorerAg Ministry Ramps Up Support to Grain GrowersIn response to falling wheat prices resulting from the MY 2024/25 bumper wheat crop, the Ministry ofAgriculture scaled up its support to grain farmers. The Ministry doled out loans and guarantees, totalinga record 700 billion tenge ($1.3 billion), to help farmers to prep the land and buy the necessary inputs tosupport the planting of the MY 2025/26 wheat crop.The Ministry of Agriculture also continued to provide farmers with different incentives to grow wheatand other row crops. The government’s incentive package includes subsidized fertilizer and diesel, aswell as preferential access to loans and equipment. The Ministry has also provided preferential leasingfor 250 billion ($480 million) of agricultural machinery.Wild Animals and Pests Pose Negligible Risk to Wheat YieldsGrain farmers are worried about potential crop damage resulting from migrating saiga antelope. Farmersreport that even with electric fencing and other defensive measures, the antelope trample and consumegrains and other crops.The Ministry of Agriculture is currently reporting that the losses are veryminimal. To avoid serious crop damage, the Ministry of Environmentannouncedthat it planned to cull800,000 saiga out of the estimated total population of 4 million. From Post’s perspective, it is toopremature to predict any potential losses that may occur during the remainder of the growing season.The Ministry of Agriculture continues itscampaignto combat the spread of locusts through differentprotective measures including chemical treatments. As of writing thisreport, the Ministry had treated 1.8million hectares out of the targeted 2.1 million hectares this season. Considering this ongoing campaignand based on feedback from farmers, Post expects locust damage to the MY 2025/26 wheat crop to bevery minor.Application of Fertilizer & Pesticides Key to Wheat YieldsPost reduced its wheat yield projection for MY 2025/26 in large part b