埃塞俄比亚谷物与饲料年度报告

Date:April 01, 2026 Report Number:ET2026-0002 Report Name:Grain and Feed Annual Country:Ethiopia Post:Addis Ababa Report Category:Grain and Feed Prepared By: Approved By:Sarah Gilleski Report Highlights: Post forecasts Ethiopia’s wheat production in MY 2026/27 at 7.0 million metric tons (MT), up eightpercent from MY 2025/26 on expandedirrigation, broader adoption of improved seed, and continueddevelopment of cluster farming and mechanization. Commercial wheat imports are forecast at 1.4million MT as tight domestic supplies and steady demand continue to drive imports by private traders. Executive Summary Ethiopia’s wheat production continues to increase, supported by expanded irrigation, wider adoption ofimproved seed, sustained investments in commercial cluster farming and mechanization, and stronggovernment backing. Despite this progress, local wheat supplies remain tight. As a result, millers haveincreasingly turned to commercial wheat imports from the Black Sea market, which are often favoredfor their competitive prices. Corn production is projected to expand, driven by yield increases, the easingof export restrictions, and greater access to regional markets under theAfrican Continental Free TradeArea (AfCFTA) framework. Similarly, sorghum production is expected to improve with theimplementation of theNational Sorghum Development Flagship Program. Barley, particularly maltbarley, is also set to rise as both multinational and local brewers and malt factories increase investments,strengthening value-added processing. At the same time, weather related shocks, supply chaindisruptions affecting access to inputs and markets, and rising input costs such as fertilizer and fuelcontinue to limit overall production growth. Under Ethiopia’s broader macroeconomic reforms and trade liberalization programs, governmentpolicies including the relaxation of export restrictions on staple grains, formalization of cross-bordertrade and thelaunchof trade under AfCFTA are expected to encourage larger-scale commercialproduction, particularly corn and stimulate corn exports to regional markets. Additionally, theGovernment of Ethiopia’s (GOE) plan to establish national grain reserve stocks, along with related foodsecurity initiatives is likely to strengthen market integration and create more stable demand for domesticoutput, positively influencing grain production growth in the years ahead. However, these policy efforts are unfolding in a challenging market environment. Domestic grain pricesremain consistently higher than international levels, reflecting high production costs, supply chaininefficiencies, informal trade, and currency depreciation. Rising fuel and input costs, combined withintermittent security challenges in key grain production regions, have further increased transportationand operational costs, pushing up local prices and limiting access to inputs and markets. Humanitarian pressures also remain significant. Ongoing conflict and weather-related shocks, includingrecurrent drought, flooding, and erratic rainfall, continue to disrupt livelihoods and reduce localizedgrain output. Millions of internally displaced people and other vulnerable groups depend on foodassistance as production shortfalls persist in affected areas. Overview Ethiopia’s grain production in MY 2026/27 is projected to increase, with gains in wheat, corn, andbarley, moderate growth in sorghum, and a decline in millet. The positive gains are supported byexpansions in improved seed use and irrigation despite structural and weather-related constraints. Wheatproduction is forecast at 7.0 million MT, up eight percent on expanded cluster farming and irrigation,while corn is expected to reach 10.5 million MT, 2.9 percent higher on wider hybrid seed adoption.Sorghum production is estimated at 4.1 million MT, up five percent under generally favorable weather,and barley at 2.5 million MT, risingfourpercent on firm demand for food and malting varieties. Incontrast, millet output is projected to fall 15.6percent to 950,000 MT due to reduced area. Higher inputcosts and currency depreciation continue to push domestic grain prices upward. Ethiopia’s 2025/26mehercropping season (June to September) was generally favorable, with rainfallamounts reported as normal to above normal in many production areas. Despite this overall positiveperformance, the season was marked by a delayed onset of rains and localized cropdamage linked toextreme weather events, including droughts, flooding, and hailstorms. These factors disrupted plantingand crop development in several zones. In the northern and central highlands, particularly in Tigray and Amhara, the late and uneven start of thekiremtrains from June to September delayed planting operations and consequently shifted harvestperiods by up to a month. In Tigray, early season moisture stress led some farmers to replant short cyclecrops such as teff and pulses. Hailstormsreportedly damaged more than 10,000 hectares