泰国谷物与饲料年度报告

Required Report:Required-Public Distribution Report Name:Grain and Feed Annual Country:Thailand Post:Bangkok Report Category:Grain and Feed Prepared By:Mana-anya Iemsam-arng, Agricultural Specialist Approved By:Mariya Rakhovskaya Report Highlights: Government policies and regional competition will continue to shape Thailand's grain utilization andtrade in MY 2026/27. Newenvironmental regulations targeting agricultural burning will directly impactrice and corn production, while the existing import requirements for corn and feed wheat aim to balancefeed availability with domestic farmer income protection. Thailand’s decision to expand the zero-duty THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY Executive summary FAS Bangkok (Post) forecasts Thailand’s MY 2026/27 rice production at 20.3 million metric tons(MMT). A contraction in off-season rice acreage is the primary driver of this year-on-year drop. Withintensifying competition among regional rice producers and Thai baht appreciation, Thailand’s rice Post forecasts MY 2026/27 corn production at 5.4 MMT, unchanged from MY 2025/26, as irrigated off-season area expansion offsets gradual contraction in burn-dependent upland zones under tighteningenvironmental regulations. Corn imports are projected to rise from an estimated 1.7 MMT in MY2025/26 to 1.9 MMT in MY 2026/27, with slightly higher feed demand and upland constraintsincreasing reliance on imported feed grains even as burn-free requirement slows the pace of some Post forecasts wheat imports in MY 2026/27 to decline to 3.3 MMT, about 6 percent below the previousyear, reflecting high carry-over stocks and steady competition from corn in feed rations. Feed wheat usewilledge up slightly in line with gradual livestock sector expansion, while milling wheat consumptionremains broadly stable as food processing output grows only modestly. The key uncertainty in the wheatoutlook is its dependence on corn import outcomes: stronger corn‑quota uptake would moderate feed 1. Rice 1.1 Production FAS Bangkok forecastsa two percent drop inMY 2026/27 milled rice productioncompared to MY2025/26(Tables1.1 and 1.2; Figures 1.1.1 and 1.1.2). A contraction in off-season rice area will drive theyear-on-yearproductiondecrease. The off-season rice area will shrink from2.1million hectares(ha)harvested in MY 2025/26 to approximately 1.9 millionhain MY 2026/27.By contrast, MY 2026/27 Theanticipateddecline in off-season area reflects wateravailability concerns in2026.While above-average reservoir storage built up during the strong 2025 wet season providesa buffer, the ThaiMeteorological Department (TMD) flagsa return to drier-than-normal conditions associated with anemerging El Niño pattern during mid-2026, which would tighten water allocations for off-seasonplanting, particularly in northern and upper-central provinces.Based on the February 19, 2026 directive In addition,domestic farm-gate prices have softenedon the back of ample MY 2024/25 and MY2025/26 harvests and weaker export demand, reducing the incomeincentive to plant a second rice cropin marginal water zones(Figure 1.1.5).Since early 2026, the government's agri-environmental agendahas increasingly discouraged open-field burning of off-season rice residue, with stricter compliancerequirements limiting profitability and land access for repeat off-season cultivation intargeted regions.Toreduce fine particulate matter (PM2.5)pollution, for 2026,Thailand’s Ministry of Agriculture andCooperatives(MOAC) identified February 1 through March 31 as an official no-burn period for Post revisedMY 2025/26riceproduction to 20.7 MMT, slightly below MY 2024/25 production, basedona modest increase inMY 2025/26main-crop acreagethatwill not offset a contraction in off-seasonacreage (Table 1.2).Post estimatesMY 2025/26 off-season planting acreage at 2.1 million ha,supportedbyabundant reservoir carryover from the 2025rainy season,more favorable water allocations across allfour major dams (Bhumibol, Sirikit, Khwae NoiBamrungdan, and Pasakchonlasit), and attractive farm-gate prices. Still, softer white rice prices between January-February 2026 averaged 7,338 baht/ MT As of early 2026,Royal Irrigation Department (RID)data indicate that combined usable water storage inthe four large reservoirs stoodatapproximately 25–30 percent above the same period a year earlier(Figure 1.1.3), providing sufficient supply to cover the balance of the dry-season off-season rice crop. Sources:Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives and FAS Estimates According to theMarch 10,2026,MOAC’scropprogressreport,MY 2025/26 off-season rice plantingareawas 12.9million rai (2.07million ha).The acreage in the central plains with high water reliabilityis similar to last year’s, but off‑season rice area in northern and northeastern non‑irrigated areas hascontracted asMOAC actively promotes short-cyclelegumes androtation cropsa