菲律宾谷物与饲料市场更新报告

Date:June 27, 2025 Report Number:RP2025-0028 Report Name:Grain and Feed Update Country:Philippines Post:Manila Report Category:Grain and Feed Prepared By:Tricia Joy Arroyo Approved By:Herpin rochet Jateng Report Highlights: FAS Manila maintains its overall forecast for milled rice and wheat in Marketing Year (MY) 2025/26,whileincreasing its forecast for corn production, area harvested, and consumption. Post increases itsestimates on milled rice and corn production in MY 2024/25 due to more favorable weather conditionsbeginning the first quarter of 2025. Continued support fromthe government for the rice industry and thesale of subsidized milled rice supports the estimated increase in rice production. Corn farmers also havean increased technical knowledge in handling the fall armyworm, which contributes to the estimatedincrease in corn production in MY 2024/25. FAS Manila maintains its estimates on wheat imports andconsumption in MY 2024/25 due to sustained demand for milling wheat, including feed wheat for theaquaculture industry. Executive Summary FAS Manila estimates milled rice production to marginally increase in MY 2024/25, given a projectedimprovement in the country’s rough rice production due to more favorable weather conditions in the first quarter(Q1) of 2025 and rice-supporting government programs, including provision of a portion of the farm inputs andsale of subsidized milled rice. Post also estimates a marginal increase in the consumption of milled rice in MY2024/25 due to an increase in distribution of subsidized rice through the government. FAS Manila adjusts its forecast corn stocks in MY 2025/26 to283,000 MT, up by21.5percent compared to theadjusted estimate for MY 2024/25. Industry contacts report a gradual growth in the use of white corn by localsnack manufacturers (e.g., nachos),combined with the continueddemand for yellow corn for feeds,resulting inan uptick in the stockholding of institutionalfood and feedcorn buyersin MY 2025/26compared to the previousMY.In addition, FAS Manila estimatesand forecastscorn production to marginally increase in MY 2024/25andMY 2025/26due to more favorable weather conditions in Q1andthesecond quarter (Q2) of2025 and increasedtechnical knowledge of farmers in handling the fall armyworm, resulting in an improvement in the area harvested.Industry contacts report that the African Swine Fever remains a challenge, causing decreased demand for feedsfrom the swine industry.However, they report that the expansion of the poultry, layer, pet food, and aquacultureindustries sustainthe demand for feed corn. Farmer contacts continue to prefer to plant feed corn (yellow corn)over food corn (white corn) due to higher marketability of feed corn. FAS Manila maintains its wheat import estimates in MY 2024/25. Imports of feed wheat, as a partial substitute tofeed corn (for energy) and soybean meal (for crude protein), is sustained by more favorable pricing over corn, andthe continued demand from the aquaculture industry. Post, meanwhile, maintains its estimate on imports formilling wheatdespite increased prices for locally produced wheat products due to an observed expansion in thedemand for higher-end bread products. Philippine Food Supply is forecast to grow by 0.6percent in MY 2025/26, while the Philippine Energy Supply isexpected to increase by 0.03percent. Animal Protein Production, meanwhile, is also forecast to grow in MY 2024and MY 2025 across all major animals consuming commercial and self-mix feeds. Source: FAS Manila Notes:(a)Figures on chicken and pork include estimates and forecast from the USDA-FAS, based on MY;aquaculture and eggs include actual figures from thePhilippine Statistics Authority (PSA), based onCalendar Year (CY) 2023to 2024(b)Aquaculture includes milkfish, tilapia, and shrimps (tiger prawns, and penaeus vannamei)(c)Percent change for chicken and pork is MY 2025 compared to MY 2024, while aquacultureandchicken eggs is CY 2024 compared to CY 2023 Sources:USDA-FAS(pork and chicken), and Philippine Statistics Authority (aquacultureandchicken eggs) Production, Supply, and Distribution Production FAS Manila maintains its forecast milled rice production to 12.25 million metric tons (MMT) in MY 2025/26,which is 0.4 percent higher than the adjusted estimate for MY 2024/25 at 12.20 MMT. Favorable weatherconditions beginning Q1 2025 and robust government programs support rough rice production within MY2024/25 and beyond to MY 2025/26. By practice, farmer contacts report adjusting their cropping calendardepending on the onset of rainfall, which assists in irrigating land areas during land preparation.ThePhilippineAtmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration(PAGASA) officially announced thebeginningof the rainy season on June 2, 2025, which will bring rainsacross thewestern sections of Luzon andVisayas. Post forecasts that the onset of rainfall during the current wet cropping season in Q2 2025 is expected increaserough