2025年第二季度盈利预告及下半年展望

Auto 2Q25 earnings preview and 2H25 outlook Weprojectcore earnings(excluding forex gains and government grants)ofeightChineseautomakersto improve QoQ in 2Q25E, despite prolongedpricewars.We raise FY25E earnings forecasts for Geely, Xpeng andLeapmotor, either due to upward revision of sales volume or operationalefficiency.We revise down FY25E earnings estimates for Li Auto, NIO, BYD,Great Wall Motor and GAC, largely due to sales volume forecast cuts. WeexpectChina’ssales volumegrowthindustry-wideto slow down HoHin 2H25amid high comparison baselast year. China Auto Sector Ji SHI, CFA(852) 3761 8728shiji@cmbi.com.hk Wenjing DOU, CFA(852) 69394751douwenjing@cmbi.com.hk 2H25E industry sales forecast.We raiseour forecast by 4% to 24.1mnunits (+2.8% YoY) forChina’s passenger vehicle (PV)retail salesvolumein 2025, given stronger-than-expected sales in 1H25 (+7%YoY).Our new forecast implies flat sales volume in 2H25E vs. 2H24,given the high YoY comparison base.We project PV wholesale volumeto rise 8% YoY to 29.8mnunits for 2025, as we also lift export forecastby 2% to 5.6mn units (+14% YoY). Austin Liang(852) 3900 0856austinliang@cmbi.com.hk We revise down our NEV retail sales volume forecast by 5% to 12.7mnunitsin2025 (+18% YoY, market share of 52.6%), given slower-than-expected market share increase in 1H25. We expect NEV wholesalevolume to rise 23% YoY to 15.1mn units in 2025, as we lift NEV exportby 71% to 2.1mnunitsgiven BYD’s rapid growth in NEV exports. Xpeng: 2Q25E net loss to narrow by17%QoQ.We expect Xpeng’s2Q25E revenue to rise 129% YoY and 18%QoQ to RMB18.6bn, as itstotal sales volume surged 242% YoY to an all-time high of about103,000 units in 2Q25. We project its vehicleaverage selling price(ASP)to rise 8% QoQ to aboutRMB165,000 in 2Q25E amidabetterproduct mix given higher contribution from theG6/G9/X9.We expect itsvehicle gross margin to improve from 10.5% in 1Q25 to 11.1% in 2Q25Egiventhehigher sales volume of the X9.We project revenue fromservices and others to rise 11% YoY to RMB1.6bn in 2Q25, which maylead to a stable overall GPM of 15.4% in 2Q25E, as the high-marginservice businessmadeup a lower portion of total revenue.We estimateXpeng’s SG&A and R&D ratios combined to narrow by 2.8ppts QoQ to22.0% (or RMB4.1bn) in 2Q25E, thanks to greater economies of scaleand management’s efforts in cost control. That, along with potentialQoQ lower government grants and QoQ higher forex gainsfrom thedepreciation of yuan against euro,couldlead toanarrowing of net lossby17% QoQto RMB553mn in 2Q25E, based on our estimates. Related Reports:“China Auto Sector-New models to drive NEV sales in 3Q after a solid Jun”–2 Jul 2025 We maintain our sales volume forecast of 460,000 units(+142% YoY)in FY25E.We cut our FY25E net loss forecast from RMB907mntoRMB638mn, implying a net profit of RMB611mn in 2H25E.Weraise ourFY26E net profit forecast from RMB3.7bnto RMB4.0bn, given betterprofitability of new models with new platforms and self-developed AIchips. Li Auto: 2Q25E net profit to double QoQ.Weexpect Li Auto’s2Q25Erevenue to rise19% QoQ to RMB30.9bn, as its total deliveries rose20%QoQ to111,000units in2Q25.We project a largely QoQ stable ASP in2Q25E.We expectbothits 2Q25Evehicle GPMand overall GPMtonarrow 0.3ppts to 19.5% and 20.2%, respectively. We expect its SG&Aand R&D ratios combined to fall 2ppts QoQ to 17.5% in 2Q25Eamid itshigher operational efficiency. We project its interest income (includinginvestment income) to rise slightly QoQ to about RMB550mn, driven bypotentially higher net cash positions and reduced volatility from listed- company equity investment. Therefore, we forecastLiAuto’s net profitto rise 26% YoY and 113% QoQ to RMB1.4bn in 2Q25E, equivalent toearningsper vehicle of RMB12,000(vs.RMB7,000 in 1Q25 andRMB10,000 in 2Q24). We cut FY25E sales volume forecast from 0.58mn units to 0.55mn unitsdue to lower-than-expected sales volume in 2Q25. Accordingly, we cutour FY25-26E net profit forecasts by 12% and 8% to RMB9.1bn andRMB13.4bn, respectively. That implies 2H25E net profittorise 12% YoYto RMB7.1bn,based onour estimates. NIO:2Q25E net loss to narrow QoQ but still far away frombreakeven.We estimate NIO’s 2Q25E revenue to rise 4% YoY and50% QoQ to RMB18.1bn, lower than its guidance of RMB19.5-20.1bn.NIO’s total sales volume rose 26% YoY and 71% QoQ to about 72,000units in 2Q25, hitting the lower end of its guidance.Weforecast a QoQlower ASP given higher sales contribution from the OnvoL60andFireflyas well as increased discounts. We expect NIO’s overall GPM toimprove from 7.6% in 1Q25 to 9.8% in 2Q25E thanks to greatereconomies of scale and cost reductions in the facelifted models. Weproject NIO’s SG&A and R&D ratios combined to fall 23.4ppts QoQ to39.6% (orRMB7.2bn) in 2Q25E, as the company has beentrying itsbestto enhance efficiency. Therefore, we project NIO’s net loss tonarrow by 21%QoQ to about RMB5.4bn in 2Q25E. We cut FY25E sales volume forecast from 0.35mn units to 0.31mn unitsgi