2025年中期报告 钢材

请务必阅读文末免责条款钢材（仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议）请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 专业研究·创造价值姓名：涂伟华宝城期货投资咨询部从业资格证号：F3060359投资咨询证号：Z0011688电话：0571-87006873邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com报告日期：2025年06月18日作者声明本人具有中国期货业协会授予的期货从业资格证书，期货投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反映了本人的研究观点。本人不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值目录 2/29请务必阅读文末免责条款1钢材走势回顾..............................................................51.1钢材期货走势：弱势下行...............................................51.2钢材现货走势：低位运行...............................................62钢材供应稳中有升，收缩有待政策指引.........................................72.1供应稳中有升，品种灵活调节...........................................72.2现实端压力不大，减产需待政策指引....................................103需求结构分化，内需亟待政策................................................143.1钢材需求结构分化....................................................143.2出口需求强劲，利好效应不强..........................................153.3内需表现弱稳，亟待政策助力..........................................184原料宽松格局未变，成本下行持续拖累........................................224.1铁矿石：供需格局在变................................................224.2废钢：高估值待修复..................................................254.3双焦：过剩格局难改..................................................265总结.....................................................................27 专业研究·创造价值图表目录图1螺纹钢期货指数走势..........................................................5图2热轧卷板期货指数走势........................................................6图3上海螺纹钢（HRB400，20mm）价格走势..........................................7图4上海热轧卷板（4.75mm）价格走势..............................................7图5上海地区主流钢材品种年度变化................................................7图6主要地区卷螺价差走势........................................................7图7螺纹钢期货期限结构（定基）..................................................7图8螺纹钢10合约期现价差（上海，%）............................................7图9中钢协重点钢企日均粗钢产量..................................................8图10统计局粗钢日均粗钢产量.....................................................8图11国内粗钢日均产量（铁水+废钢折算）..........................................8图12表内五大材周产量变化.......................................................9图13表内五大材占粗钢产量比值...................................................9图14同口径建筑钢材月度产量.....................................................9图15同口径板材月度产量.........................................................9图16全国热轧带钢周产量........................................................10图17全国型钢周产量............................................................10图18唐山钢坯周均日外卖量......................................................10图19国内钢坯净出口情况........................................................10图20钢联247家钢厂盈利占比....................................................11图21钢联247家钢厂高炉开工率和产能利用率......................................11图22钢联77家建材独立电弧炉钢厂盈利状况.......................................11图23钢厂五大材厂库情况........................................................11图24国内吨钢综合能耗水水平变化................................................12图25钢企超低排放改造情况......................................................13图26国内粗钢产能变化..........................................................13图27国内钢材表观消费量和同比变化..............................................14图28建筑钢材月度需求量........................................................14图29板材月度需求量............................................................14图30热轧带钢周度需求..........................................................15图31型钢周度需求量............................................................15图32我国钢材出口情况：细分国家................................................16图33国内钢材出口量............................................................16图34国内钢坯出口量............................................................16图35热轧卷板内外价差..........................................................17图36冷轧卷板内外价差..........................................................17图37一季度国外对中国钢铁产品发起反倾销调查情况................................17图38房地产开发投资情况........................................................19图39房屋新开工、施工、竣工面积变化............................................19图40商品房销售面积变化........................................................19 3/29请务必阅读文末免责条款 专业研究·创造价值4/29请务必阅读文末免责条款图41房地产资金开发情况........................................................19图42百城土地成交面积..........................................................19图43广义基建投资增速..........................................................20图44地方政府新增专项债发行情况................................................21图45全国建筑工地项目资金到位情况..............................................21图46制造业投资完成额和企业利润总额累计同比....................................21图47铁矿石期货指数............................................................22图48普氏铁矿石价格指数（62%FE，CFR）..........................................22图49螺纹钢与铁矿石期货比值....................................................22图50焦炭与铁矿石期货比值......................................................22图51 VALE发运量................................................................23图52 RIO发运量.................................................................23图53 BHP发运量.................................................................23图54 FMG发运量.......................................................