国泰君安期货锡周报

Special report on Guotai Junan Futures锡：5月进口超预期，锡价承压强弱分析：中性价格区间：260000-270000元/吨周度锡价小幅反弹，周五夜盘收于265580元/吨。上周观点我们提及，我们倾向于认为目前还没到交易大幅下跌的时间点，但是价格跌落已经将部分远端弱预期计价在07合约价格中。短期不建议继续追空，若反弹后再空或许更加具有安全边际。本周的反弹再度反复，亦进一步印证了我们对基本面强现实弱预期的判断，价格回归26万以上位置。本周周度库存继续维持去化，两省合计开工率持续下滑至历年最低水位，至46.84%，在尚未进入到季节性停产检修，这进一步暗示了原料的紧张。然而本周公布5月锡矿进口数据大超预期，尽管缅甸进口进一步下滑，但是刚果金进口恢复至3856吨，似乎没有受到Alphamin减产影响，澳大利亚进口增加至1848吨，尼日利亚进口增加至2589吨，玻利维亚进口增加至2201吨。总进口锡矿实物吨从上月9861吨增加至13449吨，恢复至历年中位水平。我们倾向于目前锡基本面紧现实弱预期格局延续，短期锡价将于26万至27万高位区间内，价格向上突破受累于远期供给预期，向下回落受累于原料紧张的现实。策略推荐26.5万上方逢高布空。 ◆◆◆◆ 交易面（价格、价差、库存、资金、成交、持仓）01 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.1现货2025-06-202025-06-192025-06-182025-06-172025-06-162025-06-132025-06-122025-06-112025-06-102025-06-092025-06-062025-06-05 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.1现货-500050010001500200001-0201-14美元/吨100000150000200000250000300000350000400000元/吨本周LME0-3升水80.99美元/吨，国内现货升水950元/吨。 01-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0510-1710-2911-10LME(0-3)现货升贴水2018201920202021202220232024202501-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-1310-2511-061#锡锭价格201720182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.1现货01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000002020/7/142021/7/14 2022/7/14 2023/7/14 2024/7/14Tin rand fixing price for LME tradeTin grade A min 99.85% ingot all-in price, ddpMidwest US海外premium较上周基本持平，巴尔的摩升水小幅收窄。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.2价差日期2025-06-202025-06-192025-06-182025-06-172025-06-162025-06-132025-06-122025-06-112025-06-102025-06-092025-06-062025-06-052025-06-04 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures-1500-1000-500050010001500200001-0201-1401-26元/吨1.2价差-5000-3000-10001000300050007000900001-0201-1401-26元/吨本周锡月间结构从此前的C结构转为B结构。 02-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0405-1605-2806-0906-2107-0307-1507-27Sn02-Sn0320172018201920222023202402-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0405-1605-2806-0906-2107-0307-1507-27Sn00-Sn01201720182019202220232024 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.3库存日期2025-06-202025-05-302025-05-292025-05-282025-05-272025-05-262025-05-232025-05-222025-05-212025-05-202025-05-19 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.3库存05000100001500020000250003000001-0301-1401-2802-1102-25吨0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002000001-0301-15吨本周全球锡总库存去库185吨，国内社会库存去库100吨，期货库存去库258吨。 03-0803-1903-3104-1204-2305-0705-1905-2906-1106-2407-0707-1707-2908-0908-2009-0109-1109-2310-1110-2211-0311-1311-2512-0612-1712-30全球锡总库存2019202020212022202320242025050001000015000200002500001-0301-14吨202001-2902-1503-0103-1203-2304-0304-1604-2705-1005-2106-0106-1206-2307-0607-1907-3108-1308-2609-0809-2010-0910-2211-0411-1711-3012-1312-25SHFE锡锭库存总计20182019202020212022202320242025201520162017100001200014000160001800020000吨 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.3库存020040060080010001200140016001800吨010002000300040005000600070008000900001-0201-1401-26吨20172023本周LME库存累库20吨，注销仓单比例上升至31.72%。 LME:注销仓单:锡LME注销仓单比02-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-1310-2511-06LME锡库存201820192020202120222024202520152016 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.4资金截至本周五沪锡沉淀资金为124401万元，近10日资金流向为流出方向。 日期当日资金流向近3日资金流向2025-06-20-4420.81-562.102025-06-19-1528.97-1142.262025-06-184263.47-651.092025-06-17-6161.27-2610.072025-06-16-55.47-816.192025-06-12-779.641061.362025-06-113868.11915.642025-06-1095.61-1130.422025-06-09-1216.80-2770.972025-06-06-2270.08-3867.502025-06-05-4826.02-1637.852025-06-04-4506.412541.152025-06-034418.873929.232025-05-307711.003982.242025-05-29-342.18-598.702025-05-284577.89-970.752025-05-27-6031.80-3533.212025-05-26-1458.35-4781.742025-05-23-3109.47-190.792025-05-22-9777.39661.192025-05-2112314.502951.932025-05-20-553.52-3071.612025-05-19-2905.19-3767.002025-05-16-5756.10-1550.662025-05-15-2639.70552.072025-05-143743.843743.84沪锡资金流向变化（单位：万元） Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.5成交、持仓日期SHFE总成交sn002025-06-20162289109074变化89239554072025-06-1973050536672025-06-1885548615012025-06-1788527657472025-06-1681602402025-06-13101678742025-06-1265793962025-06-1185415342025-06-10856741722025-06-091016664060102030405060708001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0405-1605-2806-09万手x 10000成交量2017201820222023本周沪锡成交持仓小幅回升，持仓量小幅提升。 sn01410322683714195174791845861758798735102969001695918445506-2107-0307-1507-2708-0808-2009-012019202020242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.5成交、持仓日期成交量2025-06-20534.0000变化2025-06-19414.00002025-06-18504.00002025-06-17467.00002025-06-16426.00002025-06-13553.00002025-06-12303.00002025-06-11436.00002025-06-10370.00002025-06-09529.0000LME3个月期货成交量本周LME锡成交小幅回升，持仓继续回落。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.6持仓库存比01-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-19总持仓库存比20172018201920202023202420252015本周沪锡持仓库存比小幅回升。 锡供应（锡矿、精炼锡）02 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures2.1锡矿2025年3月锡精矿产量为6344吨