农林牧渔行业周报：情绪与预期共振，豆粕偏强运行

请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 增持（维持）张斌梅执业证书编号：S0680523070007邮箱：zhangbinmei@gszq.com樊嘉敏执业证书编号：S0680523070008邮箱：fanjiamin@gszq.com沈嘉妍执业证书编号：S0680524040001邮箱：shenjiayan@gszq.com1、《农林牧渔：5月产能小幅增长，降重稳产利于价格稳定性》2025-06-072、《农林牧渔：降重稳产下的猪价预期重估》2025-06-3、《农林牧渔：传统与革新交织，优选景气与成长——2025年中期策略》2025-05-252024-102025-02农林牧渔沪深300 作者分析师分析师分析师相关研究01 P.2内容目录本周观点............................................................................................................................................................3行情回顾：本周农业跑赢大盘1.9个百分点....................................................................................................3本周热点.....................................................................................................................................................4核心观点.....................................................................................................................................................4农业数据跟踪.....................................................................................................................................................5生猪：生猪价格下跌，猪肉价格下跌.............................................................................................................5家禽：毛鸡价格下跌，鸡苗价格下跌.............................................................................................................6大宗：玉米价格上涨，豆粕现货上涨.............................................................................................................8风险提示..........................................................................................................................................................11图表目录图表1：本周农业板块跑赢大盘1.9个百分点......................................................................................................3图表2：本周宠物食品板块上涨4.97%...............................................................................................................3图表3：本周农林牧渔个股涨跌幅一览................................................................................................................3图表4：本周全国瘦肉型肉猪出栏价14.07元/kg，较上周下跌1.7%....................................................................5图表5：本周猪肉平均批发价20.26元/kg，较上周下跌1%.................................................................................5图表6：本周自繁自养头均盈利-2.9元/头，外购仔猪头均盈利-210.64元/头.........................................................5图表7：本周出售仔猪毛利184.71元/头，较上周减少20.57元/头.......................................................................5图表8：上周全国白条猪肉平均宰后均重91.53公斤，周环比下降0.1%...............................................................6图表9：本周15kg仔猪全国市场价38.86元/公斤，较上周下降5.2%..................................................................6图表10：6月第1周父母代鸡苗价格45.54元/套，周环比下跌0.5%...................................................................6图表11：本周肉鸡苗价格2.74元/只，较上周下跌3.5%.....................................................................................6图表12：本周白羽肉鸡平均价7.27元/公斤，较上周下跌0.7%...........................................................................6图表13：本周鸡产品平均价8.75元/公斤，较上周下跌0.6%...............................................................................6图表14：本周父母代种鸡养殖利润-0.01元/只，较上周减少0.1元/只..................................................................7图表15：本周屠宰利润-0.91元/只，较上周增加0.03元/只 .................................................................................7图表16：本周817鸡苗平均价0.54元/只，较上周下跌6.9%..............................................................................7图表17：本周817肉杂鸡平均价6.47元/公斤，较上周下跌1.2%.......................................................................7图表18：本周国内玉米现货价2405.69元/吨，较上周上涨0.7%.........................................................................8图表19：本周CBOT玉米收盘价443.25美分/蒲式耳，较上周上涨0.3%..............................................................8图表20：本周国内小麦现货价2430.39元/吨，较上周下跌0.1%.........................................................................8图表21：本周CBOT小麦收盘价543美分/蒲式耳，较上周下跌2.3%..................................................................8图表22：本周国内粳稻现货价2892元/吨，较上周上涨0.6%..............................................................................8图表23：本周CBOT糙米收盘价1377.5美分/英担，较上周上涨1.0%.................................................................8图表24：本周国内大豆现货价3946.32元/吨，较上周上涨0.5%.........................................................................9图表25：本周CBOT大豆收盘价1068.5美分/蒲式耳，较上周上涨1.0%..............................................................9图表26：本周国内豆粕现货价2968元/吨，较上周上涨0.9%..............................................................................9图表27：本周一级豆油现货价8038.33元/吨，较上周上涨0.5%.........................................................................9图表28：本周国内菜粕现货价2688.95元/吨，较上周上涨3.7%.........................................................................9图表29：本周国内进口四级菜油现货价9533.75元/吨，较上周上涨1.2%............................................................9图表30：本周国内24度棕榈油现货价8588.33元/吨，较上周下跌0.3%...........................................................10图表31：本周BMD棕榈油收盘价3927林吉特/吨，较上周上涨0.3%................................................................10图表32：本周柳州白糖现货价6090元/吨，较上周下跌0.9%.............