库存疯狂：第一季度要点

Randal J. Konik * | Equity Analyst(212) 708-2719 | rkonik@jefferies.comOmar Nokta * | Equity Analyst1 (212) 778-8405 | onokta@jefferies.com Analyst Certification:I, Randal J. Konik, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, Omar Nokta, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receives compensationbased in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulationsmay prevent us from doing so. Aside from certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervalsas appropriate in the analyst's judgement.Investment Recommendation Record(Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR)Recommendation PublishedRecommendation DistributedExplanation of Jefferies RatingsBuy - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of 15% or more within a 12-month period.Hold - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of plus 15% or minus 10% within a 12-month period.Underperform - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of minus 10% or less within a 12-month period.The expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) for Buy rated securities with an average security price consistently below $10 is 20% or more within a 12-month period as these companies are typically more volatile than the overall stock market. For Hold rated securities with an average security price consistentlybelow $10, the expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) is plus or minus 20% within a 12-month period. For Underperform rated securities with anaverage security price consistently below $10, the expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) is minus 20% or less within a 12-month period.NR - The investment rating and price target have been temporarily suspended. Such suspensions are in compliance with applicable regulations and/or Jefferiespolicies.CS - Coverage Suspended. Jefferies has suspended coverage of this company.NC - Not covered. Jefferies does not cover this company.Restricted - Describes issuers where, in conjunction with Jefferies engagement in certain transactions, company policy or applicable securities regulationsprohibit certain types of communications, including investment recommendations.Monitor - Describes securities whose company fundamentals and financials are being monitored, and for which no financial projections or opinions on theinvestment merits of the company are provided.Valuation MethodologyJefferies' methodology for assigning ratings may include the following: market capitalization, maturity, growth/value, volatility and expected total return over thenext 12 months. The price targets are based on several methodologies, which may include, but are not restricted to, analyses of market risk, growth rate, revenuestream, discounted cash flow (DCF), EBITDA, EPS, cash flow (CF), free cash flow (FCF), EV/EBITDA, P/E, PE/growth, P/CF, P/FCF, premium (discount)/averagegroup EV/EBITDA, premium (discount)/average group P/E, sum of the parts, net asset value, dividend returns, and return on equity (ROE) over the next 12 months.Jefferies Franchise PicksJefferies Franchise Picks include stock selections from among the best stock ideas from our equity analysts over a 12 month period. Stock selection is based onfundamental analysis and may take into account other factors such as analyst conviction, differentiated analysis, a favorable risk/reward ratio and investmentthemes that Jefferies analysts are recommending. Jefferies Franchise Picks will include only Buy rated stocks and the number can vary depending on analystrecommendations for inclusion. Stocks will be added as new opportunities arise and removed when the reason for inclusion changes, the stock has met itsdesired return, if it is no longer rated Buy and/or if it triggers a stop loss. Stocks having 120 day volatility in the bottom quartile of S&P stocks will continue tohave a 15% stop loss, and the remainder will have a 20% stop. Franchise Picks are not intended to represent a recommended portfolio of stocks and is not sectorbased, but we may note w