坦桑尼亚联合共和国-国家气候与发展报告：估计气候变化对坦桑尼亚的影响

November 2024Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized © 2024 The World Bank Group1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.orgThis work is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), the InternationalDevelopment Association (IDA), the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Multilateral Investment GuaranteeAgency (MIGA), collectively known as The World Bank Group, with external contributors.The World Bank Group does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the content included in thiswork, or the conclusions or judgments described herein, and accepts no responsibility orliability for any omissions orerrors (including, without limitation, typographical errors and technical errors) in the content whatsoever or for reliancethereon. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply anyjudgment on the part of any of the organizations of The World Bank Group concerning the legal status of any territoryor the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in thisvolume do not necessarily reflect the views of IBRD/IDA, IFC and MIGA, their respective Boards of Executive Directors,and the governments they represent.The contents of this work are intended for general informational purposes only and are not intended to constitute legal,securities, or investment advice, an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, or a solicitation of anytype. Some of the organizations of The World Bank Group or their affiliates may have an investment in, provide otheradvice or services to, or otherwise have a financial interest in, certain of the companies and parties named herein.Nothing herein shall constitute, or be construed, or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges, andimmunities of any of IBRD/IDA, IFC and MIGA, all of which are specifically reserved.Rights and PermissionsThe material in this work is subject to copyright. Because the World Bank Group encourages dissemination of itsknowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution tothis work is given, and all further permissions that may be required for such use (as noted herein) are acquired. TheWorld Bank does not warrant that the content contained in this work will not infringe on the rights of third parties, andaccepts no responsibility orliability in this regard.All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW,Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. COUNTRY CLIMATE ANDDEVELOPMENT REPORTUNITED REPUBLICOF TANZANIAEstimating the Impact of Climate Change in Tanzania ii|Background Paper for Country Climate and Development Report: United Republic of TanzaniaContentsTAbLEOfAcknowledgmentsAbbreviations, Acronyms and Glossary of Key Terms1.Introduction2.Methodological Overview2.1.Analytical approach2.2.Development and adaptation scenarios2.3.Climate information2.3.1.Background and historic climate2.3.2.Selection of future climate scenarios2.3.3.Expected changes by 20503.Impact Channel Results3.1.Human capital3.1.1.Heat and labor productivity3.1.2.Human health3.2.Natural capital3.2.1.Land use and land cover3.2.2.Crop production3.2.3.Soil erosion3.2.4.Livestock production3.3.Physical capital3.3.1.Inland flooding3.3.2.Bridges3.3.3.Roads4.Conclusion viiviii1224447111414141925252633374242474955 Background Paper for Country Climate and Development Report: United Republic of Tanzania|iii58Appendix A: Climate Scenario Selection61A1.Climate data and projections used61A2.Processing of climate information63A3.Selection of climate scenarios65A4.Daily interpolation of monthly data67A5.Results of the climate scenario selection process6771Appendix B: Impact Channel Methods72B1. Human capital72B1.1.Labor supply model72B1.2.Heat and labor productivity72B1.3.Human health74B2.Natural capital81B2.1.Crop production81B2.2.Livestock production84B2.3.Soil erosion87B3.Physical capital89B3.1.Infrastructure and capital stock model8997Appendix C: Data Sources103C1.Heat and labor productivity103C2.Human health103C3.Crop production104C4.Livestock production104C5.Soil erosion105C6.Inland flooding106106107 ReferencesA6.ReferencesB4.ReferencesC7.BridgesC8.Roads iv|Background Paper for Country Climate and Development Report: United Republic of TanzaniaList of TablesTable 1: Overview of impact channels evaluatedTable 2: Selected climate scenariosTable 3: Change in average national temperature by decade relative to 1995–2020Table 4: Percentage change in average national precipitation by decade relative tohistorical baselineTable 5: Proportion of occupations per sectorTable 6: Development scenario assumptions for the labor heat stress channelTable 7: Outdo