亚洲宏观战略报告集-115474918

ResearchDeutsche BankMacro Monitor (1)Note: The monthly economic indicators are transformed into rolling 10-year z-scores.Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP, CEIC, Haver AnalyticsA mixed picture across the region; inflation & consumption trends the clearestAverageChina0.3Export growth0.2IP-0.6Inflation-0.3Inflation expectations-0.7Money supply0.7Unemployment0.1Import growth-0.2Private credit0.1PMI headline0.1PMI: ouput0.2PMI: new order-0.2Consumption ResearchDeutsche BankTrade Monitor (1)Source: Deutsche Bank, CEIC, WITS, WTO, OECD *Before Liberation DayNotes: Higher ranking represents a higher effective trade barrier under each category. Tariff gap for A = A’s tariff on US goodsminus US tariff on A’s goods BEFORE Liberation Day. Ranking for "non-tariff barriers" isbased on the number of non-tariff barriers imposed on US provided by WTO. Ranking for “rerouting of China exports to US" is based on the % of China value-added exports in an economy’s total export to US.Asia scores relatively poorly vs. others on most trade metrics US cares about… Sameer Goel | +65 6423 6973 | sameer.goel@db.comSource:Deutsche Bank, US Census Bureau, White House, US Customs & Border Protection NoteNotes: (1) Tariffs on steel, aluminum and auto sector are applied at 25% based on the relevant 8-digit HS codes specified underEOs 9704, 9705, 9980, 10895, 10896 and 10908(2) All other exemptions specified under Annex II of the 2-April EO (14257) have been taken to carry a rate of 0% (including asamended by the 11-April guidance).…but is hoping to get away no worse than others+0.2+1.3-0.2-0.3-0.8 ResearchDeutsche BankTrade Monitor (3)3003504004505005506003-Jan24-Jan 14-Feb 7-Mar 28-Mar 18-Apr 9-MayContainer Ship Cargo - China to US30dmatons th100012001400160018002000220024002600280030001-Oct15-Nov30-DecContainerized freight index, spotContainerized freight index, spot +contractual ratesindexpointChina-> US departures dipped sharplybefore recovering a bitSource: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP, Government port data ResearchDeutsche BankTrade Monitor (4)Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP, several news sources*As of 16 MayChinaChina reduced tariffs on US products from 125% to 10% for 90 days to negotiate with US for a wider trade dealIndiaUS and India established Terms of Reference for a Bilateral Trade Agreement on 22 April, and are expected tosign it before 8 July when the 90-day pause on the US’s reciprocal tariff action expiresIndonesiaThe Indonesia delegation was in Washington from 16-23 April for trade talks. According to Economic MinisterAirlangga Hartarto reported, the trade talks between Indonesia and the US have entered the technical discussionphase, with both sides agreeing to form five working groups.MalaysiaInvestment minister Tengku Zafrul led a delegation to the US on a 3 day mission starting 22 April. He saiddiscussions are proceeding smoothly and the Malaysia delegation will continue negotiations in Washington from28-30 May.PhilippinesThe Philippines delegation headed to Washington in early May. Special Assistant to the President for Investmentand Economic Affairs (SAPIEA) Frederick Go said the talks went very well, with interests of local industries putforward during the discussions.SingaporeDPM Gan Kim Yong discussed trade with both Greer and Lutnick. The US wants to explore "creative solutions"for some critical exports from Singapore, including pharmaceuticals, but the 10% baseline tariff is "not likely to besubject to negotiation".South KoreaBoth sides have agreed to pursue a "package" deal on U.S. tariffs and economic cooperation issues by July 8TaiwanVice Premier Cheng Li-chiun headed to the US for initial talks on 15 May. Non-tariff trade barriers will be part ofthe negotiations.ThailandThailand submitted trade proposals to the US on 8 May and is waiting for the US to set a tariff talk date, which isstill pending after the originally scehduled talks on 23 April were postponed.VietnamVietnam has had several in person and virtual talks with the US. It is among the countries given higher priority fornegotiations by the US, and has pledged several measures like tackling counterfeit and digital piracy, offering toremove all US tariffs, and purchasing US aircrafts ResearchDeutsche BankNIIP Monitor-20002004006008001000120014001600CHTA*$bn55%57%59%61%63%65%67%69%71%73%75%Mar-18Mar-19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar 22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25Asia is sitting on large FX deposits, bothSource: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP, Korea Securities Depository, CEIC, Haver AnalyticsNotes: *excludes any FX denominated policies since hedging will not be required and based on the top 4 lifers' data ResearchDeutsche BankSameer Goel | +65 6423 6973 | sameer.goel@db.comFlow of Funds Monitor (1)Source: Deutsche Bank, EPFR GlobalRotation from US equities to other DMOutflows more obviousfrom foreign domiciled USbond funds ResearchDeutsche BankSameer Goel | +65 6423 6973 | sameer.goel@db.comFlow of Funds Monitor (2)Source: Deuts