亚洲宏观战略报告更新我们的增长指标-117683257

Asia Fixed IncomeAsia Macro Strategy 9 September 2025Date Notes Updating our growth trackers Vaninder Singh, CFAMacro Strategist+65-6423 8947 We update our growth trackers for Asia. To recap, we track growth using threemethodologies. nUsing data such as retail & car sales, IP, exports volumes, etc. to develop amonthly real economy indicator of growth, which is coincident to GDP.nIncorporatingdaily indicators– such as road/train traffic, vehicle sales,electricity generation, cinema attendance, shipping traffic, etc. –to catchturning points faster, and help inform our views on the relevant financialassets. See Are markets pricing growth correctly? for an example of this.nCapturing the sources of funding available for various economic activitiesto develop amonetary indicator of growth, which has leading properties.This builds on the realization that, for instance, there are just four sourcesforprivate consumption expenditure with differing lead/lags:(1)employment income such as wages and bonuses; (2) household credit; (3)government transfers; and (4) spending from accumulated wealth. See Aframework for tracking growth for more details. We have presented our dashboards in this note and have a few observations tomake. nChina. Fiscal support is still playing out with our monetary indicator – thatcounts the money available to spend in an economy – showing continuedstrength. Indeed, our daily tracking suggests the weakness in July data wasa blip, and August should show a recovery. This reinforces our view toremain paid 5Y rates in China. nIndia.Our monetary indicator has slowed sharply,supporting DBEconomics' view for a rate cut in October. To be sure, the real economytracking has shown a mild improvement in August – likely in response tofront-loading in August ahead of US tariff activation. However, we expectthis strength to fade in short order. It is rupee pressures the are keeping uscautious on re-engaging in receiving the front-end for now, as we detailedrecently. nIndonesia. The improvement in monetary indicator sits at contrast with thereal economy indicator, which continues to be weak. Recovery in fiscalimpulse from prior weak levels appears to be driving the monetary indicatorhigher but this is not showing up in real economy outcomes. In ourexperience tracking these indicators across Asia, this divergence is often anindication of worsening sentiment – and the recent protests in Indonesia are arguably suggesting the same. We would watch out for the July data withconsiderable interest when it completes around mid-September. nSouth Korea. Our monthly and – the more up-to-date – daily real economyindicators are both underscoring persistent weakness in the Koreaneconomy – suggesting BoK may have fallen behind the curve. The monetaryindicator – while a tad better – is not suggesting anything close to trend-likegrowth for now. We reiterate our received 2Y swaps view. nMalaysia. Growth recovered back above 4% on both our real economy andmonetary indicators – suggesting BNM could remain sidelined for a fewmore months – as is also DB Economics’ view – and is also showing throughin more positive BNM commentary compared with earlier in the year, in ourview. The clear risk is from the US putting semiconductors tariffs in place. nPhilippines. Our monetary indicator is suggesting unchanged momentum– suggesting Q2’s outcome could well get repeated in Q3, in line with theBSP’s view. The real economy indicator for July will update only aroundmid-September, which will give us a better sense on how Q3 is starting toshape up. nSingapore. The monetary indicator has improved from its trough in Q2, butstill points to lackluster domestic demand. External sector may also bestarting to show early signs of cracking as front-loading to the US appearsto be ending. Upon considering available data, we continue to assignreasonably high likelihood for further easing by the MAS. nThailand. Thailand, we believe, will be another economy where worseningsentiment will weigh on actual growth outcomes despite improving moneyavailability – same as what we expect for Indonesia. In response, the BoT -under a new leadership - is likely to deliver further easing. nTaiwan. Taiwan stands in contrast to everywhere else in Asia, with; (1)money availability and domestic demand both falling off; but (2) overallgrowth is actually accelerating. Extremely strong exports and electronics IPare behind this divergence. We are as yet unsure if this is driven by; (1) AI-related spend, in which case it will sustain; or (2) front-loading ahead ofanticipated US semiconductor tariffs, where the upcycle may be short-lived. We plan to update our July real economy indicators for Indonesia, Malaysia andPhilippines around mid- September once they are available in a brief alert. Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are so