欧洲食品与家庭及个人护理产品：尽管消费者存在不确定性，美国扫描数据依然坚挺

27May2025 EuropeanFood&HPC EuropeanFood&HPC:USScannerdataholdingupdespiteconsumeruncertainty CallumElliott,CFA,ACA +442076767183 callum.elliott@bernsteinsg.com HenryDennis +442076766776 henry.dennis@bernsteinsg.com SimranCheema +442076766705 simran.cheema@bernsteinsg.com Today'sreportisbasedonupdatedUSscannerdata,forthefour-weekperiodending17thMay2025. Keyhighlights:AcrosstheCPGlandscape,allcategoriesexperiencedslightmoderationinbothvalueandvolumegrowthinthelatestfourweekperiod,butinviewofthesignificantmacro-economicandconsumeruncertainty,themagnitudeofthedecelerationappears fairlymuted.Similarly,mostofourcoveredcompaniesreportedaslightslowdowningrowthcomparedtothepreviousperiod.VolumeperformanceremainedweakinMayacrossmostcoverage,withonlyafewexceptions:Unilever(+3.7%)andNestlé(+5.5%).Nestlé'svolumeperformanceislikelybenefitingfromDanone'sCoffeeCreamerrecall,aswellascompetitivepricing,withprice-mixinnegativeterritory.UnilevercontinuestomaintainstrongperformanceintheU.S.Scannermarket,achievingsteadyandrobustsharegainsof +30basispoints.Incontrast,Reckitt'sperformanceremainedweak,withvolumegrowthdecliningby-2.8%.Danone'salreadyfragileperformancewasfurtherimpactedbytheCoffeeCreamerproductrecallinMarch,whichaffectedapproximately-36%ofcategoryvolumesoverthelastthreeperiods.Beiersdorfreportedflatvalueperformance,whileL'Oréalachievedamodestvaluegrowthof+1.0%. CategoryHighlights: FoodmarketexperiencedamoderationinvaluegrowthinMay,reporting+2.5%,downfrom+5.1%inthepreviousperiod.Thisdeclineisprimarilyattributedtoadeteriorationinvolumegrowth,whichdecreasedby-270bpsfrom+3.0%inAprilto+0.3%inMay.Meanwhile,PrivateLabel(PL)shareremainedfeebleat+8bpsvs+10bpsinApril. BeautyandPersonalCaremarketalsosawasequentialmoderationinvalueperformance,withgrowthat+4.0%inMay,downfrom+4.9%inApril.SimilartotheFoodmarket,thisperformanceslowdownwasdrivenbyadeclineinvolumegrowth,whichfellto+0.9%from +1.9%inthepreviousperiod.PLsharechangescontinuedtobeweak,withadeclineof -23bpsinMay,largelyin-linewithApril. Householdmarket(includinglaundry,homecare,dishcare,aircare,etc.)observedflatvolumegrowthinMay,following+1.7%growthinApril.However,price/mixgrowthslightlyimprovedto+0.8%from+0.3%inApril.PLsharelossesincreasedinMayat-51bps,ascomparedto-20bpsinApril. ConsumerHealthmarketobservedLSDvaluegrowth(+1.9%)inMay,markinga-120bpsdropfromApril,largelydrivenbyamoderationinvolumegrowth. PerformancebyCompany: Nestlé'svalueperformancedecreasedto+2.2%inMay,downfrom+4.7%inthepreviousperiod.Volumegrowthremainedrobustat+5.5%,althoughithasdeclinedfrom +7.6%inApril.Notably,NestléappearstobebenefitingfromDanone'srecallofitsCoffeeCreamerproductinMarch,withNestlé'scategoryvolumes(Continuedonnextpage….) SeetheDisclosureAppendixofthisreportforrequireddisclosures,analystcertificationsandotherimportantinformation.Alternatively,visitourGlobalResearchDisclosureWebsite. FirstPublished:27May202512:24UTCCompletionDate:27May202512:24UTC www.bernsteinresearch.com increasingbyapproximately+36%overthelastthreeperiods. L'Oréalexperiencedlowsingle-digit(LSD)valuegrowthof+1.0%,primarilydrivenbyvolumegrowthof+2.1%,whichwaspartiallyoffsetbyapricingdeclineof-1.0%.However,pleasenotethatNielsendataonlycapturesasmallsub-setofdistributionchannels,andwedon’tthinkNielsenisagoodmeasureforL'Oréal. Unilever’sperformanceseemswellon-trackinUSScanner.Thecompanyrecorded +30bpsmarketsharegainsand+4.0%valuegrowth,whichwasprimarilydrivenbyvolumeat+3.7.TheperformanceappearstobesupportingourthesisaroundUnileverturnaround. Danone'schallengesintheUSAScannermarketpersist.TherecallofitsCoffeeCreamerproductinMarchhasfurtherweakenedalreadyfragilevolumes,resultingina -10%declineinoverallvolumefortheperiod.Specifically,thecompany'sCreamercategoryvolumedroppedsignificantlyby-41%,followingdeclinesof-40%inApriland-27%inMarch. Haleon’svolumegrowthremainedweak,decliningby-3.6%inMayinUSScannerdata.However,Nielsendatacapturesonlyaspecificsubsetofdistributionchannels(mainlylarge-scaleretail),whichlimitstheoverallcoverageofconsumerhealthandexcludescertaingrowthcategories. Reckitt'svolumeperformanceremainedweakinMay,withadecreaseof-2.8%.ThisdeclineisprimarilyattributedtoongoingvolumelossesintheIMF(-9.5%).Additionally,theconclusionofanalreadyweakCold&Fluseasoncontributedtothedownturn,withvolumesintheUpperRespiratoryandVMScategoriesdecliningby-2.9%and-6.9%,respectively. Henkel'sperformancewassluggish,reportingavaluegrowthof-0.9%,primarilydrivenbyweakervolume,whichdeclinedby-2.3%.Notably,thislacklustergrowthoccurredagainstaveryeasycomparisonfromthepreviousyear. Beiersdorfreportednearlyflatvaluegrowthat+0.3%,drivenby+0.7%price/mixand -0.3%volumegrowth. Lindt'sperformanceduringthisperiodwasimpactedbyamismatchinEastertiming;lastyear,EasterfellonMarch31,whilethisyearitoccurredonApril20.Whencombiningdatafromthelasttwoperiods(inordertotrackEastergrowth),Lindtachievedavaluegrowthof+25%,althoughprimarilydrivenbyprice/mixat+18%. Pleasenote:StartingwithApril2025release,wehaveincorporatedAmazonretailsalesdataintoourdataprocessing,