美国消费者状况：处于边缘状态：我们对2025年第二季度的跨行业分析显示，围绕美国消费者的情绪发生了转变，因为大多数分析师的看法已变得喜忧参半至略微负面。总体而言，由于政策相关的不利因素，存在高度的不确定性和信心不足。

Restricted - External US Economics ResearchJonathan Millar(ii)+1 212 526 4876jonathan.millar@barclays.comBCI, USFX StrategySkylar Montgomery Koning+1 212 526 8034skylar.montgomerykoning@barclays.comBCI, USU.S. ABS ResearchAnuj Jain, CFA(i)+1 212 412 1404anuj.jain2@barclays.comBCI, USU.S. Fundamental Credit ResearchHale Holden(i)+1 212 412 1524hale.holden@barclays.comBCI, USPriya Ohri-Gupta, CFA(i)+1 212 412 3759priya.ohrigupta@barclays.comBCI, USU.S. Fundamental Equity ResearchTerry Ma, CFA+1 212 526 7965terry.ma@barclays.comBCI, USAdrienne Yih+1 212 526 5257adrienne.yih@barclays.comBCI, USSeth Sigman+1 212 526 7417seth.sigman@barclays.comBCI, US (i) •Consumer ABS performance trends continue to improve. However, we see risks of highersubprime auto and unsecured personal loan delinquencies, driven partly by the resumptionof student loan payments and the reporting of delinquencies for a large number ofborrowers.•OurHY and IG credit analysisshows that consumer spending has demonstrated a highdegree of sensitivity to macro and political uncertainty, and while some of this has improved,we do not expect an immediate rebound in consumer behavior.•InUS specialty retail equities, we expect higher HH income cohorts to spend selectively in2H25. Under a 30%/10% (China/Rest of World ex Canada, Mexico),we believe a low-single-digit price increase across the US Apparel and Footwear sector is manageable withsignificantly less consumer demand destruction and margin erosion in 2H25thanimplied by the reciprocaltariffsproposed on April 2.•Theoutlook for the US Hardline and Broadline Retailers seems relatively stable over thenext three months(albeit growth should remain muted), balancing stabilization indiscretionary goods, wallet share and seasonalshiftsthat could help Q2 results withaccelerating price increases starting now, and related elasticity that may limit growth andforce moretrade-offsacross discretionary categories.•Please join uson Thursday, 29 May, at 7:30am NYT / 12:30pm UKT for this week's ThursdayMacro, US Consumer... Nine Lives.•This is a follow-up to our previous State of the US Consumer report from Q1 25, Hold back therain. 2 US Economics: Against the wind. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4FX Strategy: Front-loaded dollar weakness. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12Investment Sciences: Signals from credit card data on the state of theUS consumer. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14US Consumer Finance Equity Research: All quiet on the credit front. . 21Consumer ABS: Continued improvement, but worsening outlook. . . . 25IG Consumer/Retail Credit: Consumer likely to remain cautious. . . . . . 30HY Consumer/Retail Credit: Jigsaw pieces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32US Specialty Retail Equity Research: Expect consumer to spendselectively in 2H25. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34US Broadlines, Hardlines & Food Retail Equity Research: Stable intonext few months buttrade-offslikely a bigger theme as prices rise. . . 353 FIGURE 1.Tariffshave jumped to the highest rates in nearly aFIGURE 2. ...and trade policy uncertainty has ascended tounprecedented levels02004006008001,0001,2001,4006065 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25Trade Policy Uncertainty IndexCategorical US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index: Trade Policy (RHS)Note:Tariffacross all goods, including those that are duty free.Note: The US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index was developed by Scott Baker(Chicago) and Nicholas Bloom (Stanford). The trade policy uncertainty index (TPU) isconstructed by Federal Reserve Boardstaffand measures media attention to newsrelated to trade policy uncertainty. See https://www.matteoiacoviello.com/tpu.htmSource: USITC, US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census, Historical statisticsof the United States 1789-1945, U.S. International Trade Commission, BarclaysSource: Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steve Davis "Measuring Economic PolicyUncertainty," 2012, Stanford mimeo. ario Caldara et al. "The EconomicEffectsofTradePolicy Uncertainty,"manuscript presented at the 91st meeting of theCarnegie-Rochester-NYUConferencepolicyuncertainty.com, Haver AnalyticsUS Economics: Against the windJonathan Millar(ii)BCI, USIn February's update on US consumers, we had become more doubtful that the robustconsumer expansion could continue, given accumulating policy headwinds, includingimmigration andtariffs.Although it was fairly clear at that time that any lingering impetus fromthe post-pandemic burst of immigration would soon evaporate, the new administration's tradeagenda was only in its early stages, with the president having directed an initial salvo of newtariffson China, Mexico, and Canada. Following a barrage of developments on thetarifffrontsince then, the US's overall trade-weightedtariffhas settled, for the timing being, at about 14%