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美国食品家庭个人护理行业尼尔森数据：截至5月17日的4周

食品饮料 2025-05-26 Jefferies 王擦

美国食品和家居个人护理 (F&HPCE) 行业近期数据显示，整体增长放缓，价格涨幅放缓。Nielsen 数据显示，BN Creamer 增长率仍处于两位数负增长，酸奶增长放缓，HEIN3 洗衣产品增长放缓，体积下降。Jefferies 预计美国市场将出现适度增长，普遍低于市场预期，消费者继续寻求更高性价比。

Danone：5 月份增长减速至 -1.8%（此前 4 周为 0.6%），奶油产品下降幅度略微改善至 -12%（此前为 -13%），市场份额损失 320 个基点。即食咖啡增长放缓至 1%（此前 4 周为 4%）。酸奶增长放缓至 4%，完全由价格驱动。植物基产品继续下降，下降 -6%。Nielsen 和 Danone 报告的增长在北美地区（占销售额的 23%）之间存在高度相关性。
Reckitt：与此前 4 周相比下降 -1%（此前为 -2%）。呼吸系统产品下降 6%（此前 4 周为 5% 下降）。止痛药改善至 +1%（此前 4 周为 -3%）。VMS 继续处于负增长。卫生用品下降幅度较小，洗衣产品和空气清新剂体积增长。
Haleon：增长为 -0.5%（此前 4 周为 0.7%）。放缓主要受口腔护理产品影响。呼吸系统产品增长下降 2%（此前 4 周为 -3%）。牙膏增长 5%（此前 4 周为 9%）。VMS 下降 1%（此前 4 周持平）。止痛药保持小幅下降。
Henkel：增长为 -0.9%（此前 4 周为 2.7%），洗衣产品增长放缓（此前 4 周为 +3%）。洗衣产品市场份额下降 50 个基点。头发护理产品再次改善至 7% 增长（此前 4 周为 6%），体积进一步加速增长至 10%。
Unilever：销售增长放缓至 4%（此前 4 周为 6.3%），价格增长放缓至 1%（此前 4 周为 2.5%），体积增长放缓至 3.5%（此前 4 周为 3.7%）。美容与健康增长放缓至 4%（此前 4 周为 7%）。冰淇淋略有下降至 -0.4%（此前 4 周为 7% 增长）。
Nestle：销售增长放缓至 2.2%（此前 4 周为 4.8%），受体积增长放缓（此前 4 周为 8.6%）推动。价格仍为 -4%。所有类别均较 4 月份有所放缓。预制菜肴下降 2%，受体积下降推动。宠物护理增长放缓至 1%，价格略有下降。
L'Oreal：销售增长 1%（此前 4 周为 2%），体积增长 2%，受价格下降 1% 抵消。所有类别均有所放缓，头发护理产品增长降至 3%（此前 4 周为 6%）。化妆品增长放缓至 -2%（此前 4 周为 -1%）。护肤产品增长放缓至持平（此前 4 周为 1%）。
Beiersdorf：增长放缓至 0.3%（此前 4 周为 1.4%），受价格影响。护肤产品增长放缓至 -0.2%（此前 4 周为 2.0%）。防晒产品改善至 -2.9%（此前 4 周为 -12%）。

Nielsen 数据与各公司报告的增长数据在北美地区高度相关，自 2022 年中期以来相关性尤为显著。Jefferies 认为，如果历史相关性保持不变，那么如果顶线风险向下，公司基本面和财务状况可能面临下行风险。

David Hayes * | Equity Analyst+44 (0)20 7029 8230 | david.hayes@jefferies.comMolly Wylenzek * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8564 | mwylenzek@jefferies.comFeng Zhang * | Equity Associate+44 (0) 20 7029 8491 | feng.zhang@jefferies.comThomas Randall * | Equity Associate+44 (0)20 7029 8440 | trandall@jefferies.com Exhibit 1 - US Nielsen Summary.DanoneSNWaterEDPYogurtCreamersPlant-basedRTD coffeeNestleBeverageMilk productsNutrition and NHSPrep dishesPet careUnileverBeauty & WellbeingPersonal careHome careNutritionIce creamReckittNutritionHygieneHousehold CleaningLaundry CareAir FreshenerDish CareHealthRespiratoryVMSPain reliefHaleonVMSOral CareToothpastePain ReliefRespiratoryCold & FluDigestive HealthHenkelLaundry CareBath & ShowerHair CareAir freshenerL'OrealCosmeticsFacial skin careHair CareBeiersdorfSkin careSun care4w ending 05/17/25Source: NielsenIQ; Jefferies analysisPlease see important disclosure information on pages 12 - 17 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 2 - BN US.BN USSales growth y/y - BN USMarket share change y/y - BN US (in bps)Market share change y/y - BN plant-based US (in bps)% EQ on promotion - BN US-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%08/12/2309/09/2310/07/2311/04/2312/02/2312/30/23Volume %-30-25-20-15-10-50510152008/12/2309/09/2310/07/2311/04/2312/02/2312/30/2301/27/240%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%08/12/2309/09/2310/07/2311/04/2312/02/2312/30/2301/27/24-400-350-300-250-200-150-100-5005008/12/2309/09/2310/07/2311/04/2312/02/2312/30/2301/27/24Source: NielsenIQ; Jefferies analysisPlease see important disclosure information on pages 12 - 17 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 3 - NESN US.NESN USSales growth y/y - NESN USMarket share change y/y - NESN US (in bps)Private label market share change y/y - NESN categories% EQ on promotion - NESN US-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%08/12/2309/09/2310/07/2311/04/2312/02/2312/30/2301/27/24Volume %-35-30-25-20-15-10-50508/12/2309/09/2310/07/2311/04/2312/02/2312/30/2301/27/24-20-15-10-505101520253008/12/2309/09/2310/07/2311/04/2312/02/2312/30/2301/27/2420%25%30%35%40%45%50%08/12/2309/09/2310/07/2311/04/2312/02/2312/30/2301/27/24Source: Jefferies analysis, NielsenPlease see important disclosure information on pages 12 - 17 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 4 - ULVR US.ULVR USSales growth y/y - ULVR USMarket share change y/y - ULVR US (in bps)Market share change y/y - ULVR Personal Care US (in bps)% EQ on promotion - ULVR US-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%08/12/2309/09/2310/07/2311/04/2312/02/2312/30/2301/27/24Volume %-5-3-11357911131508/12/2309/09/2310/07/2311/04/2312/02/2312/30/2301/27/240%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%08/12/2309/09/2310/07/2311/04/2312/02/2312/30/2301/27/24-40-30-20-10010203040506008/12/2309/09/2310/07/2311/04/2312/02/2312/30/2301/27/24Source: NielsenIQ; Jefferies analysisPlease see important disclosure information on pages 12 - 17 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 5 - RKT US.RKT USSales growth y/y - RKT USSales growth y/y - RKT HygieneMarket share change y/y - RKT US (in bps)% EQ on promotion - RKT US-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%08/12/2309/09/2310/07/2311/04/2312/02/2312/30/2301/27/24Volume %-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%08/12/2309/09/2310/07/2311/04/2312/02/2312/30/2301/27/24Volume %0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%08/12/2309/09/2310/07/2311/04/2312/02/2312/30/2301/27/24-100-80-60-40-200204008/12/2309/09/2310/07/2311/04/2312/02/2312/30/2301/27/24Source: NielsenIQ; Jefferies analysisPlease see important disclosure information on pages 12 - 17 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 6 - Haleon US.Haleon USSales growth y/y - HLN USSales growth y/y - HLN Pain Relief USMarket share change y/y - HLN US (in bps)% EQ on promotion - HLN US-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%08/12/2309/09/2310/07/2311/04/2312/02/2312/30/2301/27/24Volume %-10%-5%0%5%10%15%08/12/2309/09/2310/07/2311/04/2312/02/2312/30/2301/27/24Volume %(50)(40)(30)(20)(10)-10203008/12/2309/09/2310/07/2311/04/2312/02/2312/30/2301/27/240%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%08/12/2309/09/2310/07/2311/04/2312/02/2312/30/2301/27/24Source: NielsenIQ; Jefferies analysisPlease see important disclosure information on pages 12 - 17 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 7 - Henkel US.Henkel USSales growth y/y - Henkel USSales growth y/y - Henkel Bath & Shower USMarket share change y/y - Henkel Laundry Care US (in bps)% EQ on promotion - Henkel US-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%08/12/2309/09/2310/07/2311/04/2312/02/2312/30/23Volume %(100)(90)(80)(70)(60)(50)(40)(30)(20)(10)-08/12/2309/09/2310/07/2311/04/2312/02/2312/30/23-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%08/12/2309/09/2310/07/2311/04/2312/02/2312/30/23Volume %0

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