谁能最贴近消费者需求？美国尼尔森口腔尼古丁产品：截至11月1日的4周数据

Global | Tobacco Who Is Getting Closest to the Gums? USNielsen ONPs: 4 Weeks to 1 November Exhibit 1 - October ONP Volume growth wasslightly slower relative to Jun-Aug, whichwe attribute to some consumers havingstocked up during the intensely promotionalSeptember US Nielsen Oral Nicotine Products data for the 4 weeks to 1 Novembersuggests: 1) Oral Nicotine Pouches grew at a more moderate pace aspromotional activity decreased; 2) Velo continued to accelerate, and is nowdriving two-thirds of category volume growth; 3) Price/unit recovered to$6.2 for ZYN, suggesting a limited likelihood of aggressive discounting forthe category; & 4) Volume declines deepened for Altria's on! brand. Oral Nicotine Pouches. YoY volume & price/mixgrowth (%) Oral Nicotine Pouches: Category volume growth moderated after ahighly promotionalSeptember.Data for the 4 weeks to November 1st suggests Oral Nicotine Pouches grew vols+28.4% YoY in October, moderating vs Sep +56.3%, which featured elevated promo activityfrom ZYN, and August +43%. Exhibit 2 - Velo's volume growth has continuedto accelerate in October, leading categorygrowth as ZYN slowed down following anintensely promotional September. Altria's on!saw deeper volume declines during the month.YoY volume growth (m units) by brand Philip Morris International: volume growth slowing down after September can giveaways.ZYN's volume growth slowed down to +15.4% in Oct (vs Sep +56% and Aug +33.6%). However,we underline this may be partially driven by consumers having stocked up during the intenselypromotional September, and believe November is likely to provide a clearer image of theunderlying growth profile of the brand.Price/unit has recovered to $6.2 (vs $5.0), whichsuggests the likelihood of aggressive downwards pricing within Oral Nicotine Pouchesremains limited. British American Tobacco: Velo's volume momentum accelerating despite wider categoryslowdown.Velo's momentum continued to accelerate, with volume growth +418% in October(vs Sep +366% and Aug +336%), accounting for c. two-thirds of category growth (vs one-thirdin August).We believe this is a good indicator of Velo's high competitive strength, giventhe significant volume growth slowdown for the wider category. Velo volumes grew by 9.1munits in October, above Sep 8.2m units and Aug 7.4m units. Exhibit 3 - Velo is now leading category valuegrowth, driving 70% of ONP growth in Octobervs 36%/56% in Aug/Sep. All other brands sawsequentials slowdowns in October. Altria: volume declines deepened in October.The on! brand registered vols/value growth of-12.1%/+3.9%, below Sep -8.1%/+6.9%.We believe this has been partially driven by price/unitgrowing to $4.6 for in October, above $4.0 in September, contrary to the increased promoactivity within the wider category. Imperial Brands: A continued sequential slowdown.Retail Sales Value grew $2m yoy inOctober, a sequential slowdown relative to Sep $2.6m and Aug $3.7m.Given market shareremains limited and sales growth has been slowing down for the last eight consecutiveNielsen sets of data, we see limited scope for Zone to become a successful challenger inthe US market for now. Exhibit 4 - US Nielsen on! Oral NicotineProducts YoY sales growth, %US Nielsen on! Oral Nicotine Products YoY sales growth, % Andrei Andon-Ionita, CFA * | Equity Analyst+44 (0) 207548-4173 | aandon-ionita@jefferies.com Edward Mundy, ACA * | Equity Analyst44 (0)20 7029 8476 | emundy@jefferies.com YoY volume growth (m units) by brand Exhibit 11 - Velo is now leading category value growth, driving 70% of ONP growth in October vs 36%/56% inAug/Sep. All other brands saw sequentials slowdowns in October.Yoy sales growth ($m) by brand .Source: NielsenIQ, Jefferies Company Valuation/Risks Altria Group, Inc. Our price target is DCF-based. Upside Risks:A moderation in US combustibles volume decline rates.Pre-Covid, US combustibles volumes haddeclined at -LSD to -MSD p.a. While this has accelerated in the last three years, there is a blue-sky scenario where volume declines moderate, inline with Altria's secular volume decline projection of c. -2.5% p.a, potentially coupled with a cessation of the downtrading seen in the past two tothree years, which has driven Altria's underperformance relative to the wider market. Market share gains in Modern Oral.An acceleration in volume growth for Altria'son!Oral Nicotine Pouches, with the brand outpacing the declineof Traditional Oral brands. Cessation of import ban on NJOY and illicit eVapour products removed from the market.Albeit thus far limited, we have seen some regulatorygreenshoots regarding the enforcement of regulation regarding illicit eVapour products at State level (e.g. Louisiana). Were incremental actionto be taken across the United States, this would likely create an opportunity for legal products, including Altria's ENJOY eVapour brand. Whilethe brand is currently banned from import into the US due to the recent International Trade Commission ruling i