杰富瑞餐饮科技趋势监测- 2025年5月

Samad Samana * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-4649 | ssamana@jefferies.comJeremy Sahler, CFA * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 284-2475 | jsahler@jefferies.com •Total Restaurant Employeesat Food Services and Drinking Places in the US grew 1% y/y inApril according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, in-line with growth through2024 and YTD in 2025 (Exhibit 12).Accommodation and Food Services Job Openingsdecreased 15% y/y and 5% m/m in March on a seasonally adjusted basis (Exhibit 13) whileNew Hiresdecreased 7% y/y but increased 7% m/m (Exhibit 14).Please see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 1 - Same Store Foot Traffic at US Restaurants.-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%1/1/20223/1/20225/1/20227/1/2022Source: Placer, JefferiesAs a reminder, we look at an aggregate index of same store visit foot traffic for ~140 restaurant groupsrepresenting over 100K restaurants and fixed to a basket of locations that were present for the duration ofthe analysis window. The population spans multiple restaurant types, including fine dining, casual dining,and fast casual/QSR. We believe the full population can be used as a proxy for overall restaurant foottraffic.Exhibit 2 - Census US Retail Sales - Food Services and Drinking Places +5% Y/Y in April.-20,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000Jan-19May-19Sep-19Source: US Census Bureau, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. -60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-21May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23May-23Sep-23Jan-24May-24Sep-24Jan-25Food Services and Drinking Placesy/y growth Exhibit 3 - March CPI - Food Away from Home (+3.9% Y/Y) vs. Food at Home (+2% Y/Y).0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%Jan-2019Apr-2019Jul-2019Oct-2019Jan-2020CPI - Food at Home y/ySource: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, JefferiesExhibit 4 - OpenTable US Seated Diners +10% Y/Y in April.-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Source: OpenTable State of Industry Report (opentable.com/state-of-industry), JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 5 - Food Services and Drinking Places - Monthly Spend Per Company (SMBs <500 FTEs).-2,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,000Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Source: Moody's Pulse Analytics, JefferiesExhibit 6 - Food Services and Drinking Places - SMB Payment Speed - Days Beyond Terms (SMBs <500 FTEs).051015202530354045Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Source: Moody's Pulse Analytics, JefferiesExhibit 7 - Food Services and Drinking Places - Late Balances % (SMBs <500 FTEs).0%10%20%30%40%50%60%Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Source: Moody's Pulse Analytics, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 8 - Restaurant Performance Index - Current Situation vs. Expectations.9596979899100101102103104Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Restaurant Performance IndexSource: National Restaurant Association Restaurant Performance Index, JefferiesExhibit 9 - RPI - Current Situation Index and Select Components.93959799101103105107Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Current Situation IndexSource: National Restaurant Association Restaurant Performance Index, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 10 - RPI - Expectations Index and Select Components.93959799101103105107Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Expectations IndexSource: National Restaurant Association Restaurant Performance Index, JefferiesExhibit 11 - Producer Price Index - Food Wholesaling Increased 7% Y/Y in April.020406080100120140160180Jan-2018May-2018Sep-2018Jan-2019May-2019Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 12 - US Restaurant Employee Count Grew 1% Y/Y in April.-2,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000Jan-2018May-2018Sep-2018Jan-2019Total Employees - Food Services and Drinking PlacesSource: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, JefferiesExhibit 13 - Accomodation and Food Services Job Openings Decreased 15% Y/Y in March.-2004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,800Jan-2018May-2018Sep-2018Jan-2019Job Openings - Accomodation and Food ServicesSource: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 14 - Accomodation and Food Services