平台型SoC芯片龙头，AI眼镜再探可穿戴市场新机遇

2024A2025E2026E2027E3,2634,8406,4727,98049.9448.3333.7123.31460.47926.431,315.281,738.94272.47101.1941.9732.213.847.7210.9614.4998.8149.1134.5926.16 东吴证券研究所1/252025年05月24日证券分析师陈海进执业证书：S0600525020001chenhj@dwzq.com.cn研究助理李雅文执业证书：S0600125020002liyw@dwzq.com.cn379.00一年最低/最高价119.68/449.606.79流通A股市值(百万元)45,497.27总市值(百万元)45,497.27每股净资产(元,LF)55.86资产负债率(%,LF)6.41总股本(百万股)120.05流通A股(百万股)120.05《恒玄科技(688608)：2021年第三季度报告点评：产品快速迭代，持续开拓AIoT成长空间》2021-10-31《恒玄科技(688608)：2021年半年报点评：业绩高增长，持续开拓AIoT成2021-09-012024/9/222025/1/212025/5/22恒玄科技沪深300 股价走势市场数据收盘价(元)市净率(倍)基础数据相关研究长空间》-12%16%44%72%100%128%156%184%212%240%2024/5/24 内容目录1.公司介绍..............................................................................................................................................41.1.股权结构：股权结构相对集中，管理层研发背景深厚.........................................................51.2.财务分析：25Q1业绩高增，公司增长引擎强劲...................................................................52. TWS：产品及客户基本盘稳固，市场份额有望持续提升..............................................................82.1. AI端侧兴起，TWS耳机行业迎来新的增长点.......................................................................82.2.从24年耳机新产品看竞争格局.............................................................................................103.手表手环：穿戴设备新增量，2024年快速成长...........................................................................133.1.可穿戴腕带设备市场持续增长，中国市场表现突出...........................................................133.2.加速迈进智能手表领域，巩固优势地位...............................................................................133.3.智能手表芯片升级的几个主要趋势.......................................................................................144. AI眼镜：SoC兵家必争之地，看好公司优势卡位........................................................................174.1.行业趋势...................................................................................................................................174.2.为什么“低功耗”是AI眼镜当下核心痛点？.........................................................................184.3.客户优势已然体现，小米AI眼镜或搭载高通AR1+恒玄BES2700.................................205.盈利预测与投资建议........................................................................................................................215.1.盈利预测...................................................................................................................................215.2.投资建议...................................................................................................................................226.风险提示............................................................................................................................................22 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分东吴证券研究所2/25 图表目录图1：公司产品结构...............................................................................................................................4图2：公司股权结构（截至2025/3/31）.............................................................................................5图3：公司营业收入及增速...................................................................................................................6图4：公司归母净利润及增速...............................................................................................................6图5：公司营收拆分（亿元）...............................................................................................................6图6：公司分业务毛利率.......................................................................................................................6图7：公司三费（亿元，左轴）及费用率（右轴）...........................................................................7图8：可比公司研发费用（亿元）及费用率（右轴）.......................................................................7图9：公司存货（左轴，亿元）及周转天数（右轴，天）...............................................................7图10：2024年代表性AI+耳机产品梳理............................................................................................8图11：AI耳机与传统耳机的性能差异...............................................................................................9图12：配备红外摄像头的AirPods效果图.........................................................................................9图13：AirPods Max摄像头示意图......................................................................................................9图14：TWS全行业出货量.................................................................................................................10图15：三星、小米、华为TWS出货量（百万）............................................................................10图16：2024全球TWS品牌市占率＆出货量增速...........................................................................10图17：2024中国大陆TWS品牌市占率＆出货量增速...................................................................10图18：主控芯片厂商应用占比（2024/6）.......................................................................................11图19：2024年新发布安卓系TWS耳机价格&性能........................................................................11图20：恒玄与高通芯片的对比（以24年新产品为例）.................................................................12图21：2024全球可穿戴腕带设备市场出货量＆增长率..................................................................13图22：全球智能手表历史出货量..