市场展望-2024年8月8日

Market Perspectives August 8, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT September 2024 Corn Futures.............................................................................................. 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 7FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 9Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ............................................................................... 10DDGS Comments..................................................................................................................................... 10Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 11Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 11U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 13Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 13Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 14Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 14 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook USDA will release its first survey-based yield estimates for US corn and soybean production on Monday,August 12 at 12 p.m. EDT (1600 GMT). A survey of trade analysts shows that they are looking for a cornyield of 182.1 bushels per acre, which would be 1.1 bu/acre higher than the July report. The range ofestimates are from a low of 180.1 bu/acre to a high of 184 bu/acre. Harvested acres are expected todrop to 82.967 million acres, down 471,000 acres from the July estimate. The range in trade estimateson acreage is from 82.2 million on the low side to 83.45 million acres on the high side. Productionestimates average 15.112 billion bushels, up 12 million bushels from the July estimate with a range of14.92 billion bushels on the low side to 15.264 billion bushels on the high side. The average of the soybean yield estimates is 52.5 bu/acre which would be 0.5 bu/acre higher than theJuly estimate. The low estimate is 51.5 bu/acre, and the high estimate is 53.9 bu/acre. Soybean acreageis expected to be 85.11 million acres, down 151,000 acres from the July estimate. The low estimate is84.7 million acres, and the high estimate is 85.6 million acres. Soybean production is expected to be4.469 billion bushels, up 34 million bushels from the July estimate. The low estimate is 4.38 billionbushels, and the high estimate is 4.565 billion bushels. Ending stocks for 2023/24 US corn are expected to be 1.876 billion bushels, essentially unchanged fromthe July estimate. The low estimate is 1.825 billion bushels, and the high estimate is 1.954 billionbushels. For the 2024/25 marketing year, US corn ending stocks are expected to be 2.096 billion bushels,essentially unchanged from the July estimate. The low estimate is 1.897 billion bushels, and the highestimate is 2.285 billion bushels. For 2023/24 soybeans, ending stocks are expected to be 349 million bushels, up 4 million bushels fromthe July estimate with a range of 341 million bushels to 365 million bushels. For the 2024/25 marketingyear, US ending stocks of soybeans are expected to be 465 million bushels, up 30 million bushels fromthe July estimate with a range of 380 million bushels to 555 million bushels. Traders expect USDA’s estimates of world ending stocks for 2024/25 corn to decline to 310.94 millionmetric tons (MMT) which would be a decline of 0.7 MMT. The range of estimates is from 307 MMT to313 MMT. For soybeans, world ending stocks for 2024/25 are expected to be 127.97 MMT, up 0.29MMT from July with a range of 125.60 MMT to 130.50 MMT. Wheat ending stocks for 2024/25 areexpected to be