市场展望——2024年8月1日

Market Perspectives August 1, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT September 2024 Corn Futures.............................................................................................. 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 7FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 9Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ............................................................................... 10DDGS Comments..................................................................................................................................... 10Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 11Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 11U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 13Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 13Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 13Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 14 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook The heat is on in the U.S. Plains states and the market doesn’t care. Corn, soybean and wheat pricesdropped sharply Friday and continued the weakness through the first several trading days of the week.Crop condition rating dropped slightly in the western areas of the Cornbelt but improved in the EasternCornbelt with good rainfall coverage before warmer temperatures arrived. Crop consultant, Dr. MichaelCordonnier left his corn yield forecast at 181.5 bushels per acre and U.S. corn production at 14.97 billionbushels. He noted that July weather was generally favorable for crop development with rain whereneeded and soil moisture often replenished before above normal temperatures developed. Most of the U.S. corn crop pollinated under favorable conditions and this sets the stage for relativelylarge crops, even record yields, if August weather is not too detrimental. Corn acres in Kansas andNebraska are most likely to experience excessively hot temperatures in the next week to 10 days.Central Cornbelt and Eastern Cornbelt acres are likely to see some moisture ahead of above normaltemperatures. The heat in early August is likely to speed up maturity of the corn crop and shorten thetime for earfill which usually results in a few less bushels as the weight of each ear may be less thanoptimal. A crop tour in Bulgaria tends to confirm that corn production in southeastern Europe, Romania, andUkraine could be significantly less than last year if the pictures of damaged ears are representative ofwidespread crop damage in the area. Excessive heat and dryness have been seen across much of thatarea throughout the spring and summer growing season. The Bank of Japan raised its lending rate to 0.25% for the first time in 20+ years. In response to the ratehike, the dollar weakened, and the yen strengthened. Japan’s central bank hinted at additional ratehikes to help lower the cost of imported goods like food and fuel. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expectedto lower its key lending rates beginning in September and this could signal the start of a rate-easingcycle by the Federal Reserve which should help rebalance international currencies in a way that favorsmore grain sales from the U.S. The ”looming outlook question” is “why is China being so slow in picking up U.S. corn and soybeanssupplies when U.S. prices are very competitive with prices in South America?” Cash-connected tradesources are confident that China will secure sizeable quantities of U.S. corn and soybeans, but the timingis quite uncertain. To date, China has booked about 1 MMTs to Brazili