市场展望-2024年8月15日

Market Perspectives August 15, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT September 2024 Corn Futures.............................................................................................. 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 7FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 9Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ............................................................................... 10DDGS Comments..................................................................................................................................... 10Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 11Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 11U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 13Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 13Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 14Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 14 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook USDA released their first survey-based estimates of the U.S. corn and soybean crops on Monday, August12th. The corn yield estimate is 183.1 bushels per acre, which would be 5.8 bushels per acre higher thanlast year and a record national yield. Within the Midwest, Illinois is expected to have a corn yield of 225bushels per acre, Iowa at 209 bu/ac, Indiana at 207 bu/ac, all record yields. USDA also adjusted theirestimates of planted and harvested acres dropping planted corn acres to 90.7 billion and harvestedacres to 82.7 million acres. Corn production is currently estimated to be 15.146 billion bushels which is195 million bushels less than last year’s crop. In the USDA WASDE report, planted corn acres dropped 0.8 million acres from the prior report, anddown 3.9 million acres from last year. Harvested corn acres dropped 0.7 million acres from the priorreport, and down 3.8 million acres from last year. Compared to the prior report, beginning stocks for the2024/25 marketing year were reduced by 10 million bushels, production increased by 47 million bushelswith total supply being increased by 36 million bushels. On the demand side, feed and residual was heldsteady at 5.825 billion bushels, food, seed and industrial use decreased by 15 million bushels to 6.84billion bushels with usage for ethanol held steady at 5.45 billion bushels. Export demand was raised by75 million bushels to 2.3 billion bushels for a total use of 14.965 billion bushels. With the increases indemand, ending stocks were reduced by 24 million bushels compared to the prior report, to 2.073billion bushels. However, this is a 206 million bushel increase in ending stocks compared to the 2023/24marketing year. USDA lowered the estimated average farm price of corn for the 2024/25 year to $4.20per bushel, 10 cents per bushel lower than the prior estimate and 45 cents per bushel lower than theaverage farm price for 2023/24. While the initial reaction to the corn reports was a drop of 2 to 4 centsper bushel, within minutes after the report, corn prices were 4 to 6 cents higher. The estimated sorghum yield is 52.9 bu/ac up 0.9 bu/ac from 2023 with harvested acreage estimated tobe down 840,000 acres. Production for the 2024/25 marketing year is estimated to be 278.8 millionbushels, down 38.9 million bushels from last year. Sorghum exports are estimated at 195 million bushelsfor the 2024/25 marketing year, down 50 million bushels from the prior report and down 40 millionbushels from last year. Barley acreage was lowered to 2.4 million planted acres and 1.9 million harvested a